Devastating quake may hit Trinidad any time, say experts
By Kim Boodram
Story Created: Aug 8, 2010 at 12:02 AM ECT
(Story Updated: Aug 8, 2010 at 2:42 AM ECT )
Seismic experts are once again warning of the possibility of a devastating earthquake that could occur in Trinidad at any time.
One seismologist at the Seismic Research Unit of the University of the West Indies in St Augustine is also calling for more resources to be put into studying the fault line that has been identified as the potential source of the earthquake threat.
"Statistically, a large earthquake is due near Trinidad," said Lloyd Lynch, acting director of the Seismic Research Unit. "It can be devastating because we are not prepared."
The possibility of a massive quake coming out of the Central Fault that runs along the Central Range and into the Atlantic Ocean first arose out of a 2005 study by US paleoseismologist, Carol Prentice.
For decades, the Central Range fault was thought to be inactive.
After testing, Prentice estimated the last earthquake along that fault occurred between 2,710 and 550 years ago. An earthquake is deemed 'recent' if it falls within the past 1,100 years.
The first recorded earthquake in Trinidad took place in 1776 but debate continues as to whether this movement can be attributed to the Central Fault.
On July 5 and 6 this year, the Seismic Research Unit of the University of the West Indies held a consultation—The National Consultation on Earthquake Safety—which brought together stakeholders such as medical personnel, fire services and structural engineers.
It was at this consultation that the possibility of a massive earthquake was again bandied, based on Prentice's work.
Some of Prentice's theory on the fault also appeared in a July 21 article by Brett Israel, of the website "Our Amazing Planet".
The article states that Trinidad sits atop a "risky earthquake zone" that runs through the heart of the island.
The Central Fault is part of the border of the Caribbean and South American tectonic plates - slabs of land that cover the planet like a giant jigsaw puzzle.
These plates slide along and sometimes into each other. When they become "locked", pressure built up at the border could eventually result in earthquakes.
Earthquakes arising out of plates that are locked at great depths, which in a geological view would be upwards of ten kilometres, have less impact on the surface even if the earthquake registers as "'large".
Quakes closer to the surface bring with them devastating side effects such as tsunamis and open chasms along the fault, which become permanent tears in the land.
For the Seismic Unit, not knowing whether the Central Fault is locked at a depth—or whether the pressure is close to the surface—is a nail-biting state to be in.
If shallow, the Central Fault could release an earthquake to devastate Trinidad in the fashion that Port-Au-Prince, Haiti, suffered on January 12.
"The article on 'Our Amazing Planet' ties into what we have been saying," Lynch said. "Any fault with recent activity like that could rupture again. This must be taken seriously."
The Centre is currently compiling a report on "improving the framework for safety", which it intends to present to government.
It hopes to eventually attract more funding to explore the fault. This means beefing up personnel and expanding its stock of equipment. "Any study of this nature has resource implications," Lynch said.
"Right now, we are overwhelmed and we would really like to have more staff. We need to know more about the fault, especially the depth at which the plates are locked."
In the meantime, other geological activities continue around the island. The Northern and Western zones of the country appear to the sinking, while the Southern half seems to be rising.
But these issues are less pressing for the seismologists who fear that the country will be caught off-guard and unprepared by an earthquake that could "set us back 50 years".
