U.S. Close to World Cup Seed, Faces Tough Draw on Friday
Posted Dec 02, 2009 11:00AM By Brian Straus (soccer.fanhouse.com)
FIFA's World Cup organizing committee met Wednesday in some smoke-filled room in Cape Town and, in between bites of caviar and peeled grapes and just after confirming the delivery of a lifetime supply of Coca-Cola products to Jack Warner's compound in Trinidad, announced the procedures and seeding for Friday's World Cup draw (Noon, ESPN2).
The decision to base the eight top seeds (including the host) on FIFA's monthly soda-sponsored national team rankings, ignoring past World Cup performance, means the U.S. came tantalizingly close to landing in the first pot -- closer than any of us may have expected when seeding was mentioned as a motivation following October's draw with Costa Rica. If FIFA and Coke want to promote their ranking, all the better for the Americans, who probably always will be higher than they deserve. But the pots announced Wednesday were anything but a favor. The road to next summer's second round will be treacherous.
More Coverage: Final Seeds Revealed for Draw
Leave it to soccer's godfathers to unveil their seeding criteria just two days before the draw. It's reminiscent of the late decision to seed the four European playoffs after the qualifying tournament's group stages were completed, a move that angered countries like Ireland and Slovenia who perhaps correctly claimed that organizers were looking out for high-profile teams like France and Portugal and protecting their financial interests.
They also opted Wednesday to shelve the prospect of using extra officials behind the goal lines to spot infractions in the penalty area. That would have been progress, and we all know how FIFA feels about that.
Back to the draw: Had Sunil Gulati and Bob Bradley known it would come down to the rankings, it may have prompted them to take a more experienced team to last summer's CONCACAF Gold Cup, or perhaps schedule a couple of extra friendlies against Aruba. If Friday's draw was conducted like those in the recent past, which used a formula combining a team's ranking with past World Cup performances, there would have been little chance for the Americans to make the top eight.
Instead, it was quite close. FIFA used the October ranking rather than the November, for reasons that are unclear. An odd choice, because the qualifying competition extended into November (but so did a lot of half-hearted friendlies). Brazil, Spain, Netherlands, Italy, Germany, Argentina and England are the lucky seven. The eighth-ranked team, Croatia, failed to qualify. Teams nine and 10 are France and Portugal, respectively. Both teams needed last month's playoff round to reach South Africa. Had the Portuguese choked against Bosnia and Herzegovina and if referee Martin Hansson knew how to do his job, the U.S. is in with the big boys. In addition, Portugal leapfrogged the U.S. last month. In the end, the U.S. may have been just one more qualifying or Gold Cup win away from a seed.
Instead, they face a gauntlet. Warner apparently was unable to use his considerable influence to steer the placement of CONCACAF sides into a more favorable pot. The U.S., Mexico and Honduras will be grouped with the four Asian qualifiers and New Zealand, all teams that the Americans would be favored to beat in South Africa. The eight unseeded European teams will be together, as well the five other African teams and three South American sides. After their 2006 Group of Death, the U.S. will hope that fortune smiles on them this time around, but the odds of a landing in a difficult foursome are good.
Group of Death option 1: Brazil, Portugal, Ivory Coast, USA
Group of Death option 2: Spain, Serbia, Ghana, USA
Group of Death option 3: Germany, France, Paraguay, USA
Group of Death option 4: Argentina, Denmark, Nigeria, USA
And so on. Not appetizing.
However, the following also could happen:
We're headed to the second round option 1: South Africa, Slovenia, Uruguay, USA
We're headed to the second round option 2: England, Greece, Algeria, USA
So much depends on what names come out of what pots on Friday. The extent to which a team's World Cup fate is determined by fashion models and plastic balls is hugely significant.
One interesting non-U.S. note: Had FIFA decided to use the November ranking (in which the U.S. slipped to 14th) instead of October's, France would have been seeded. Perhaps there was some unintentional justice for a team that cheated its way into the finals.
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