http://guardian.co.tt/commentary/columnist/2010/04/07/difficult-road-ahead-opposition-unityBy Tony Fraser
The People’s National Movement (PNM) will not be beaten in a general election merely because there is widespread disenchantment with the party, especially its political leader, his style of governance and his management of the economy and polity. The electorate will only displace the incumbent if the opposition parties are able to fashion a credible alternative which can be seen to be sustainable in office. Sure Kamla Persad-Bissessar is riding the popularity charts, having, in the most authoritative manner possible, relegated Basdeo Panday to the political cemetery. However, Persad-Bissessar and the United National Congress (UNC) will have to triumph over the demographics by garnering electoral support from outside of the natural and ethnic enclave of the party through striking some form of electoral/political accommodation with other parties.
Similarly, while the defeat of Panday has opened up possibilities for the Congress of the People (COP) to engage in a meaningful electoral alliance with the UNC and other opposition forces, such opportunities will not automatically materialise because of the political demise of Panday and the vulnerability of the ruling party and its leader. Dookeran and his team have the potential, perhaps even more than Persad-Bissessar and the UNC, to attract non-traditional support and make linkages with other political constituencies to achieve an alliance of the political forces to remove the PNM from office. But potential has to be converted into reality and it is going to take quite an amount of insight, planning, political savvy and credibility on the part of the COP leadership to persuade large segments of the electorate to sink their political fate with the party and by extension buy into a UNC-led administration.
The presence of the COP in the north, that politically accommodating town of Woodbrook, a place of blacks, browns, off-whites, Syrians, middle class Indos and the ever-present dougla; the town of Invaders, Silver Stars, Phase II, Little Carib, the Oval and the neighbouring St James where Hosay and Cosby’s meet in regular procession, will be crucial to attracting support from St James through into Rowley’s Carenage, Glenco, Goodwood Park and Westmoorings. I remember an NAR meeting in 1986 on the grounds at Goodwood Park, with the people from up the hill, a different kind of hill to Laventille, chanting and shouting themselves sore in the throat for Margaret Hector, a woman of the Baptist faith, complete with headtie and always threatening to break out in a revelation of the Spirit, and this at the same time that the “Goodwoodites” were extending a welcome to the representatives of the central constituencies, it was perhaps the moment I became convinced that the NAR would defeat the PNM.
The COP’s role could become crucial as the third party as it seems almost impossible for the UNC to be able to win an election outright. Nonetheless, the first step along the way is for the two parties to strike an alliance. Already though it is clear that the UNC is stringing the COP out, raising anxieties at the leadership level, perhaps the intention being to have the COP desperate enough that it will settle under terms and conditions dictated by the UNC.
But that is exactly the point of difficulty to be faced by the leaderships of the two major opposition parties and the other minor parties by way of deciding which party will fight in which constituencies. It is quite unlikely that the UNC will cede any of the seats it now holds to COP candidates. Moreover, the UNC will demand that the COP takes on and beats the PNM in difficult constituencies such as the Diego Martins and Port-of-Spain and other points along the East/West Corridor as a means of earning its place in a coalition government.
But the real squabble will be over which party gets to put up candidates in those marginal constituencies such as Tunapuna, San Fernando West, Barataria-San Juan and a few others where either party can benefit significantly from support expressed in the last election for both. Ideologically, meaning economic, social and political poli-cies and outlooks on develop- ment, political organisation of the State and policies on governance will also be a challenge for the parties to work out common ground. In the interest of T&T, the electorate must, notwithstanding the desire to get rid of Manning and the PNM, be presented with a solid platform which would last longer than the Red House fire. One element of that settlement is who would lead the coalition government if the parties trounce the PNM at the polls. As to the UNC, Panday may have been sidelined, but the political culture created by him over three decades will not be easily expunged. The leadership will have to establish new principles upon which the party will stand; it will have to remove the excessive reliance on tribal support, glib statements and replace them with substance as a basis for governance.
Persad-Bissessar must not delude herself into believing that Panday will stop attempting to cause conflict within the ranks of the UNC to create an opportunity for him and his group to retake what he considers his party. The attack concentrated on Jack Warner is not incidental; it is directed at provoking and awakening ethnic vulnerabilities within the support base of the UNC. On Warner’s side is the fact that he won over 10,000 votes in the party’s internal elections on his own steam as a representative for his constituents and one seen to be able to work with the new leader, Kamla. But in addition to the Warner issue, the UNC leadership will have to work out with constit-uency executives a slate of candidates that gives new life to the party and this will have to be done while not seeking to be disloyal to the MPs who easily crossed-over after the internal polls. Dealing with any further electoral ambitions held by Panday/ Ramnath will be relatively easy, the electorate having rejected them collectively. However, the UNC leadership will have a challenge to decide whether to go into the elections with Bharath—who lost to Warner, Gopeesingh and Maharaj.
Time is not on the side of the opposition parties, but it is often the case that the greatest decisions are made under the most stressful conditions conceiv- able.
