wogoood maths...i'm a maths man too.......
yeah the problem Ryan give is called the Monty Hall Problem...i also did actuarial science in uni
the answer is you always switch no matter what, because your probability of winning increases from 1/3 to 2/3..
First case: You choose a door randomly......the probability of winning is simply a 1/3....(one out of 3 doors)
Second case: You choose a door randomly and out of the 2 unchosen doors(remember the announcer knows the locations of the 2 goats and the car), the announcer
always shows you a goat and gives you the option of switching doors....the question is should you switch?
think about it in scenarios to help yuh understand it:
Remember there is Goat1, Goat2, and a Car
Scenario 1: You initially choose Goat1
That means when the man show yuh a goat....and if you
switch you have a 100% probability of getting a car
Scenario 2: You initially choose Goat2
That means when the man show yuh a goat....and if you
switch you have a 100% probability of getting a car
Scenario 2: You initially choose the car
That means when the man show yuh a goat....and if you
switch you have a 100% probability of getting a goat
moral of the story: switch doors since there is a 2/3 chance you will win the car if you switch