PM, Rowley tie in favourability
MPs losing support in 4 marginal constituencieshttp://www.trinidadexpress.com/news/PM-Rowley-tie-in-favourability-284280741.htmlIn the next general election San Fernando West and St Joseph are too close to call, the People’s Partnership (PP) has a clear lead in Moruga/Tableland and the People’s National Movement (PNM) is ahead in Tunapuna.
This is the finding of a tracking poll by Solution by Simulation commissioned by the Express.
The poll finds that run-off elections are possible in San Fernando West and St Joseph if the election were held today.
The first in a series of polls of marginal constituencies focuses on Tunapuna, St Joseph, San Fernando West and Moruga/Tableland.
In these four constituencies the two political leaders, Kamla Persad-Bissessar and Dr Keith Rowley, are tied in favourability ratings.
Keep reading the Express for more in a series of 2015 general elections tracking polls in the marginal constituencies to determine which party is likely to sit as the next government.
All polls are being conducted by Solution by Simulation led by Nigel Henry, the country’s newest and most accurate pollster.
Following is the conclusion of the first poll by SBS:
Popularity of the Leaders
In the constituencies polled, the leaders of the two major parties have statistically indistinguishable favourability ratings. Unlike in the national population where the favourability of the Prime Minister typically outperforms the popularity of her party and the favourability of the Opposition Leader typically falls short of the popularity of the PNM, in these constituencies the favourability of the two leaders is essentially on-par with the general election preferences between the parties. The favourability ratings of the two leaders are in the low 40s, compared to their national approval ratings in the high forties.
On average, respondents had a net negative approval rating of their Member of Parliament, with 41 per cent approving and 46 per cent disapproving of the job that each is doing. However, among the four constituencies there was a clear distinction between approval ratings of the MPs in the COP-controlled constituencies—both of which are in the low 30s—and the approval ratings of the MPs in St Joseph and Moruga/Tableland—both of which are in the high 40s.
Third parties and
the “Run-off” factor
Overall, four per cent of those polled support the Independent Liberal Party (ILP), and all other parties combined for 5 per cent. The ILP’s support has drastically dropped from its peak of 23 per cent nationally in the Local Government Election in 2013 and whatever supporters remain are more likely to be men than women.
If the proposed constitutional amendment provisions are passed, the high third party vote (9 per cent on average) creates the possibility of a “run-off” election in all four seats polled, and perhaps others not polled. This poll almost guarantees that run-off elections would be held in San Fernando West and St Joseph if the election were held today. In these seats, whichever party’s supporters return to the polls in higher numbers and captures more votes of third party supporters, would make the difference.
However, in these four constituencies, the proportion of major-party supporters who would return to vote in a decisive run-off election is a statistical tie: 88 per cent for the PP and 87 per cent for the PNM. Similarly, the proportion of third-party supporters who would prefer the PNM and the PP in a run-off situation is also a statistical tie: 19 per cent each for the PNM and the PP.
Stability of the Current Situation
As may be expected in the marginal constituencies, although the race is tight many voters admit that they may change their support within the coming months. Overall, of those voters who currently have a favourite, 32 per cent will likely reconsider their options; only 50 per cent said that their choice is unlikely to change, while the remaining 18 per cent are not sure.
The Partnership’s supporters are twice as likely to be “soft” in their support as the PNM’s supporters. As many as 43 per cent of PP supporters are likely to reconsider their choice, while about two-thirds of PNM supporters say that they are very unlikely to reconsider their choice within the coming months.
The major groups of voters who are wavering in their support are voters of mixed race and Indo-Trinidadian voters in the Moruga/Tableland constituency. This may mean that the competition in Moruga/Tableland may tighten as we draw nearer to the election.
Methodology
This survey was commissioned as exclusive research for the Express Newspapers and conducted by Solution by Simulation. Six hundred and thirty-five (635) persons were interviewed during the period November 18th - Nov 21st 2014 via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and live telephone calls.
An address-based sampling frame was used which involves matching publicly available landline numbers to their constituencies by address. Telephone numbers were then selected by a weighted random generator such that the number of dials into each polling division was proportional to the number of voters in that polling division. Respondents within households had to be at least 18 years old (of voting age) and willing to participate. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points in the overall sample and +/- 8.1 percentage points in results presented by constituency. Data was weighted by constituency.
Undecided voters in the marginal constituencies are almost twice as likely to be women as men, and they are much more likely to be of mixed ethnicity than any other ethnicity. Most of them have not formed a firm opinion of the major candidates for Prime Minister, and the majority of them are not traditional supporters of any particular political party. About half of them think they will form an opinion by Election Day. More than any other segment of society, they are most interested in a party who can directly provide benefits to ordinary people.
About Solution by Simulation
Solution by Simulation (SBS) is a data analysis firm which uses computer modelling to probe and provide insight into human behaviour. SBS provides market research and data analysis services for a number of commercial, academic, and civil society clients. SBS was founded by Nigel AR Henry, BS (Yale) MA (GWU), following Mr Henry’s service as the lead numerical analyst for the Southeast US for Obama for America campaign. SBS debuted in Trinidad and Tobago producing the only published poll to forecast the 12-0 victory of the PNM in the 2013 THA Elections. Over five elections in 2013 and 2014, Solution by Simulation has proven to be consistently accurate in its pre-election polling.
Poll