Dont see why they will take our half spot away and give it to who ? Asia is worst than us and the others have enough already. To hell with Max Bretos and South America as they to didn't do to good, they have 2 quality teams also (Brazil & Argentina), Europe have about 4 good teams and Africa have 3, so everybody deserve what they get, 3.5 is good enough for concacaf. Now go with my idea and place 8 teams in the final HEX, make it interesting.
Hoss your opinions and fifa's are 2 different things.
Asia is worst than us, but Australia is part of Asia from now on and adding that to the equation, they become at least just as good. In any case, with Asia you shouldn't forget the China factor (Saudi arabia may be crap, but FIFA wants to keep their spot safe for China to grab at some point).
Both of these factors going to ensure they keep that 4.5 imo.
In other words, ideally FIFA wants Japan, South Korea, China and Australia, the .5 spot should make sure that any one of those who fouls up will be saved.
South america maybe have only 2 quality teams, but since we have 32 teams in a world cup they advance at least 3 of them (Paraguay and Chile in 98, Paraguay in 2002, Ecuador in 2006). Thats pretty consistent and justifies them keeping their 4.5.
Ideally FIFA wants Brazil, Argentina, and 2 other random countries. They'll be happy if south america loses the playoffs but they can't justify not giving it to them.
Europe have 4 good teams? um I'm assuming you talking about the 4 semifinalists right? whiich means you don't consider the Netherlands, England, Spain or any of the 3 other teams they usually advance as good teams? The fact of the matter is Europe usually advances 10 teams and seeing their strong showing this time around, there is no case for them losing spots. As a matter of fact just the fact that they won't be the host next time around pleads for them to get 14 full spots
Ideally, FIFA wants Germany, Italy, France, England, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, one scandinavian country, Russia, 1 'emerging eastern european country. After UEFA makes noise they're usually forced to add to that list 1 fringe european country with great potential for development (turkey), 2 traditional but fading force (Belgium and Poland), 1 great 'travelling fan' country (Ireland),
Concacaf had it awful and since the 32 team WC, we've basically only had 1 good year - 2002. The awful showing by Costa Rica hurt us really badly. 2 spots are guaranteed, a third migt be given on the merit that Trinidad could make progress/Costa Rica could rebound/Honduras can be a handul if they qualify etc but explaining leaving us with that half spot is going to take all of JW's negociating skills, and to be quite honest, I doubt he will fight down the issue now that he can 'move on to other things'
Ideally FIFA just want USA and Mexico. A third spot is really just in the hope that Canada wakes up some day, or to tap into the central american market
The big question though is Africa. They advance 1 team out of 5 every time, but this team changes. The fact that South africa is going to be the host this time and they didn't even qualify is going to play in the balance. I can see FIFA giving South Africa an extra half spot (Concacaf's) on the premise that they want Cameroon, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Ghana, one of Egypt/Tunisia/Morocco as well as South Africa represented
What may decide the question is if Oceania without australia keeps its half spot or if its winner is simply integrated into another confed's qualifying (probably asia's) If it keeps it, we lose it. if it doesn't we keep ours.