Goal.commentary: Predicting the Hex
By Noah Davis
Over the weekend, the United States Men's National Team found out the road it will travel while attempting to qualify for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. The route provides some interesting challenges (first up, Mexico) and no consecutive home matches, but the team does begin and end on U.S. soil. Judging by the past three Hexagonal rounds, the Americans will need between 14 and 17 points to place in the top three, thus guaranteeing a spot in the Cup. Here's one man's idea of how it will get there.
February 11 vs. Mexico (Crew Stadium, Columbus)
The most important game of the final round is also the team's first: against Mexico, at home. Win here and the team takes a huge step towards qualification. You can bet Bob Bradley will look to take every advantage he can and this starts with a pro-American crowd cheering in frigid temperatures. Crew Stadium (average February high: 40.5 degrees F) fits the bill perfectly.
Result: 2-1 U.S.
March 28 vs. El Salvador (Away)
This represents a dream first away match for Bradley's crew. El Salvador comes into the Hex as the weakest team and the Americans shouldn't have too much difficulty dispatching their Central American foes, despite traveling there.
Result: 3-0 U.S.
April 1 vs. Trinidad & Tobago (Toyota Park, Bridgeview, Ill)
Why change things up? During the semifinal round, the U.S. soundly defeated T&T at Toyota Park on the strength of goals from Michael Bradley, Clint Dempsey, and Brian Ching. Expect the first two names on that list to play a vital role against the Soca Warriors as the Americans improve to 3-0 in the Hex.
Result: 2-0 U.S.
June 3 vs. Costa Rica (Away)
The United States hasn't had much success in Costa Rica, going 0-6-1 lifetime which includes a 3-0 pasting during the last round of qualification. (The Red, White, and Blue was already through, however.) Regardless, expect the American side to struggle against a Ticos squad battling for its World Cup life.
Result: 1-1
June 6 vs. Honduras (Robertson Stadium, Houston)
Over the weekend, Sunil Gulati said the U.S. Federation " might consider a game in Houston." Given the length of the flight from Costa Rica back to the United States, this could be the match played in Texas. With the Confederations Cup kicking off eight days later, the American staff will be looking to minimize time spent on planes. Holding the match at Robertson Stadium would save valuable in-flight hours and could balance out the disadvantage of holding the game so close to Honduras.
Result: 2-1 U.S.
August 12 vs. Mexico (Away)
Ironically, both matches against Mexico fall on single-date fixtures, which will likely influence Bradley's decision-making process on bringing in players. This match, however, will almost certainly be played in Azteca and represents the best chance to simulate a World Cup environment. Expect the U.S. to arrive with it’s A-squad, but come up short.
Result: 2-1 Mexico
September 5 vs. El Salvador (RFK Stadium, Washington D.C.)
The Americans could be on the verge of qualifying at this point (not that Bradley will ever admit it), and a win here could put the team through. Talent-wise, El Salvador boasts a similar squad to the Cuba one the U.S. soundly defeated 6-1 earlier this fall in RFK. A small, if solidly pro-American crowd watched the massive offensive output, and the stadium deserves another fall qualification match.
Result: 3-0 U.S.
September 9 vs. Trinidad and Tobago (Away)
There's a very good chance that with a victory here, the Americans will stamp their ticket to the World Cup. In the semifinal round, Bradley clearly enjoyed the freedom to experiment in the final two matches, so he should bring the A-team to this match. A win will also provide nice revenge for the loss in October.
Result: 2-1 U.S.
October 10 vs. Honduras (Away)
In all likelihood, this game won't matter for the Americans and, therefore, they will leave some better players at home (or in Europe). The home squad, on the other hand, could certainly be in the hunt for a World Cup spot and will fight hammer and tongs for the victory.
Result: 1-0 Honduras
October 14 vs. Costa Rica (Giants Stadium, New York)
I actually doubt the U.S. will play here (Nashville or the Bay area are more likely), but I live in Brooklyn so I can always hope. The enormous Giants Stadium is much better suited to hosting a major international squad (think Argentina) in a match that doesn't matter than a qualification game -- even one that (hopefully) won't have an effect on U.S. qualification. If it does come down to the final game, however, playing in cold weather can't hurt.
Result: 2-1 U.S.
Final record: 7-2-1
22 points
Noah Davis covers the U.S. Mens National Team for Goal.com
