http://soccernet.espn.go.com/columns/story?id=408287&root=england&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab1pos2&cc=5901Going up?
Norman Hubbard
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It can be called the £30 million reward for failure but last place in next season's Premiership is certainly lucrative. Promotion to the top flight has never been so significant; already Championship chairmen complain that parachute payments give relegated teams an unfair advantage.
A taste of the largesse on offer at the top table, no matter how brief, will extend the gap between the haves and the have-nots in the second tier. No wonder, then, that all of a sudden plenty are speculating to accumulate in their bid to reach the promised land.
But, in common with most promotion battles in the Championship - last year provided a notable exception - it is fiercely contested. Teams in the lower half still harbour hopes of emulating Iain Dowie's Crystal Palace by timing their charge towards the play-offs and, thus, the Premiership.
Derby County, after a similarly swift rise, currently occupy pole position. It is a remarkable turnaround for a club that finished 20th last season and were embroiled in relegation struggles for six of the last seven. It can be attributed to one man, the intense, intelligent Scotsman, Billy Davies, even if he insists his three-year plan culminates in a top six finish in 2009.
Remarkably astute tactically, he can change the formation at will, though he normally varies between 4-1-2-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. His January spending, resulting in seven arrivals, has given Davies numerous permutations behind the irreplaceable target man Steve Howard. David Jones and Stephen Pearson, both gifted left-footed midfielders, are the most significant of the additions.
That Derby have scored more goals in the final half-hour of matches than in the preceding hour is a triumph of both fitness and management; that 17 of their 19 victories have come by a single goal is an indication that they rarely overwhelm teams.
Birmingham City can. Derby may be the most accomplished team but, man for man, either Birmingham or West Bromwich Albion are the most talented and coveted.
Gary McSheffrey, signed for a seemingly excessive £4 million, might be the division's most influential performer, providing a healthy contribution of both goals and assists and equally effective either in attack or on the left flank. Arsene Wenger's influence is apparent in Nicklas Bendtner, the strong, skilful striker who invites comparisons to Zlatan Ibrahimovic.
The Dane was one of three loanees from Arsenal, reduced to two by Sebastian Larsson's permanent move. The proceeds of the sales of Jermaine Pennant and Emile Heskey have been reinvested to rebuild the side and, despite Matthew Upson's high-profile departure, injuries had limited him to a bit-part role. But, just when promotion to the Premiership appeared inevitable, a pointless January reduced Birmingham from the rank of leaders to challengers.
The ultimate beneficiaries may be their near neighbours in the Midlands.
West Brom accompanied Birmingham down from the Premiership and were immediately installed as favourites to return with them. But consistency was elusive, until recently, and it took Tony Mowbray three months to record a first away win after he succeeded Bryan Robson.
The goals, however, are flowing. Diomansy Kamara is the Baggies' McSheffrey, adept on both the flank and in a central striking role and figuring among the top goalscorers. His Premiership campaign was notable for excruciating misses but at a lower level, he has shown himself capable of scoring exquisite goals and operating at a speed that is too great for Championship defences.
It says much for West Brom's midfield strength that Zoltan Gera is far from an automatic choice; Jonathan Greening and Jason Koumas, the latter a prime example of an outstanding Championship player who is yet to prove himself in the elite, have excelled. Steve Bruce noted, too, that while Birmingham sold their prize asset in defence (Upson), West Brom have kept theirs, Curtis Davies.
The coveted David Nugent remains at Preston but, one way or another, seems certain to be in the Premiership next season. Adding Michael Ricketts was their most eye-catching move but generally it has been smooth progress under Paul Simpson after back-to-back play-off appearances under Davies. The softly-spoken Simpson's success is all the more impressive as he has effectively had to construct a new defence, but Preston have stalled over the last fortnight.
That George Burley is a serial loser in play-offs may not bode well for Southampton, though his brand of attractive football is usually enough to ensure his teams progress at least that far. While the precocious Gareth Bale has attracted most of the attention, the rehabilitation of Grzegorz Rasiak has been as significant. The Pole is the Championship's joint second top scorer but there should be more to come from two of Burley's other former charges, Rudi Skacel and Inigo Idiakez.
The former Southampton manager Dave Jones has experienced remarkable fluctuations in fortunes, mirrored by the scoring spells of Michael Chopra. Nine wins in their first 12 games took Cardiff top of the league, but though a run of 13 games without a victory followed. Other than Jones, the Ninian Park supremo whose return to the Premiership would intrigue most is Peter Ridsdale.
It is impossible to mention the Cardiff chairman without reference to his dealings at Leeds. This season, few have entered the transfer market with greater vigour than Roy Keane. A radically different squad have transformed Sunderland under the Irishman's guidance and featuring a large contingent of his compatriots.
Anthony Stokes, the youngest of them, may be unproven in England but Carlos Edwards, part of Keane's Trinidadian trio, has shown himself to be a high-class Championship performer. In the shape of Dwight Yorke, Liam Miller, Graham Kavanagh, Dean Whitehead and Grant Leadbitter, Keane has acquired more central midfield options than anyone else, with the possible exception of Derby, and Sunderland appear to be gaining the momentum required.His predecessor and old friend Mick McCarthy may lack the firepower required. A rebuilt Wolves squad does not yet include a regular goalscorer.
To widespread surprise, Colchester have two. Propelled by the goals of Jamie Cureton and Chris Iwelumo, they represent the most admirable and surprising of surprise packages. It is not inconceivable that Layer Road could become the Premiership's smallest ground. The achievements of a rookie manager in Geraint Williams should not be underestimated.
At Stoke City, Tony Pulis has had a far more conventional approach. Their advance has been notable for attritional football and an outstanding defence, though Michael Duberry's departure to Reading may alter that, and lashings of experience, in the shape of whoever Pulis has been able to borrow from Premiership clubs. There is no doubt, however, that Lee Hendrie has been the catalyst.
Anyone else is very much, as Palace were three years ago, an outsider. The Eagles have had high expenditure and expectations, but a slow start could still prove their undoing and manager Peter Taylor estimates another 30 points are required to ensure a place in the play-offs.
In a division where the teams with the most prolific strike partnerships invariably prosper, their profligate forwards could be a problem for Palace.
That favours Birmingham and West Brom (and, curiously, Colchester). Derby, meanwhile, have their own asset at the top, with arguably the Championship's finest manager. There have been few causes for optimism in Midlands football in recent seasons, but the three clubs looking forward to banking £30 million apiece next season could be Derby, Birmingham and - perhaps via the play-offs - West Brom.
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