Bobby McMahon / Fox Soccer Channel
When you hear the phrase "World Cup winners" being muttered, what's the first country that jumps to mind?
I'd bet that 99 times out of 100 the answer will be Brazil, no matter which country your heart might be with.
After all, they have won the World Cup five times, been runners-up twice and are the only country to have made an appearance at every final. They also produce such a continuous stream of great players that Henry Ford would have been envious.
Estimates put the number of Brazilian football players plying their trade around the globe at around 5,000 and the number increases each year. A look at the last eight of this season's Champions League demonstrates the impact the exports have had. Every team left in the competition as at least one Brazilian on their team and in most cases many more.
Out of the big seven leagues in Europe (Spain, England, Italy, France, Germany, Holland and Portugal) only the Premiership has yet to fully embrace players from the land of the Samba. But given that the country commonly regarded as almost everyone's second favorite team has so much going for it, is there any hope for the other thirty-one countries this summer in Germany?
In the interests of providing hope and encouragement to every non-Brazilian supporter out there, here are ten reasons why Brazil will not win the FIFA World Cup 2006.
1. Brazil does not win when the expectations back home are too high
When a "special" team (and this edition has that potential) comes along, expectations ratchet upwards. In 1966, Brazil arrived in England as reigning champions and with a 26-year-old Pele at the peak of his talents. They found themselves in what would now be referred to as a group of death. Pele was kicked out of the tournament — literally, and they were back in Rio before the postcards.
The team of '82 is remembered as a magnificent squad but an unsuccessful one. Flowing football in the group stage had everyone salivating and the only question seemed to be who was going to finish as the runner-up. But they ran into an Italian side and Paolo Rossi who punished them for defensive lapses and all that was left was their nomination as one of the best teams that didn't win the World Cup.
Of course the biggest blow came when they failed to win in 1950 when they hosted the tournament. Despite leading 1-0 in the crucial game against Uruguay, two goals in the last 25 minutes gave the Uruguayans their second World Cup and sent the entire Brazilian nation into a protracted state of mourning.
2. The goalkeeping is suspect
Brazilian goalkeepers have rarely garnered much respect although Gilmar ('58 and '62), Taffarel ('94 and '98) and Marcos ('02) all provided exemplary service. The 'myth' of dodgy Brazilian 'keepers is probably down to their 1970 goalie, called Felix. He was no cat but he certainly had at least nine lives.
This time there are at least five goalkeepers up for consideration — Dida (Milan), Marcos (Palmeiras), Julio Cesar (Inter), Gomes (PSV) and Rogerio Ceni (Sao Paulo).
Dida, Marcos and Julio Cesar have all missed games to injury this season and Cesar (married to the former Mrs. Ronaldo) has lost his starting position to Toldo at Inter.
Dida has looked shaky at times this year as well, so Brazil may go into the tournament without a clear number one choice.
3. The full backs are over-the-hill
At the last two World Cups, Cafu and Roberto Carlos gave Brazil the width they needed in attack. Now at ages 36 and 33 respectively, how much can Brazil really expect from these two and without their powering runs who will replace them? Cafu has recently undergone surgery while Roberto Carlos is often relegated to a cameo role at free kicks for Real Madrid.
Cicinho (Real Madrid) is touted as a replacement on the right-hand side but there is a feeling that the former Sao Paulo star is far better going forward than he is defending. Junior (Parma) and Gustavo Nery, who underwent an unhappy spell at Werder Bremen, are two options to replace Roberto Carlos.
4. Roque Junior
Any side that has Roque in it has to give a confidence boost to the opposition. The great mystery of our time is how did this player — and Christian Karembeu of France — ever manage to win both the World Cup and the Champions League? Self-handicapping by their respective coaches is the only plausible explanation.
5. Coach Carlos Alberto Parreira has too many stars to choose from
The quality of players that won't make the final squad of twenty-three is enough to make most other coaches green with envy. But even within the twenty-three, the competing egos will be too much to handle as every player angles for playing time. Throw in the chance of a poor start to the tournament and a peace-keeping force may have to be called in.
6. Emerson isn't the force he was
The man that Carlos Alberto Parreira described as his "rock" played with all the characteristics of one against Arsenal last week. He couldn't keep with the pace of the Arsenal midfield and instead plunked himself in front of the Juve central defenders and hardly moved all game. Renato might be a wiser, more mobile choice but Parreira is likely to stick with Emerson — in the short term anyway.
7. Robinho, Kaka, Ronaldo, Adriano, Ronaldinho
Despite pleas from Brazilian fans to start all five, it's not likely. Although Parreira was quoted a couple of weeks ago that he will play Adriano, Ronaldo, Kaka and Ronaldinho as the "magic quartet" in the first game against Croatia.
The problem is, of the five players, only Ronaldinho and Kaka are at anything close to the top of their game. Robinho gets limited time at Real Madrid while Ronaldo can still turn it on but it is increasingly rare.
Adriano, who started the season so well, seems more intent on sulking over his girlfriend and needs desperately to give himself a shake.
Some statistics to chew over for those who believe the two Ronnies are the way to go. Parreira has coached Brazil 48 times and Ronaldinho and Ronaldo have been on the pitch together 17 times. When played together, the team won 57% of its games and scored 1.59 goals per match. But take one of them out of the equation and the wining percentage increases to 66% while the goals per game rises to 2.48.
8. Played in Europe
Only once has a non-European country won the World Cup when it was held in Europe. Mind you it was Brazil who did it, in Sweden in 1958.
9. The Ghost of 1994
In 1994, Carlos Alberto Parreira led Brazil to their first World Cup in 24 years. But rather than being feted, Parreira was heavily criticized for winning the trophy with a team that had more to do with hard work and functionality than it did with free-flowing football. Will Parreira throw caution to the wind and gamble?
10. Tournament formatTaking the knockout phase into consideration as well as the strong possibility of injuries and suspensions it is hard to understand why at 15/4 Brazil is such a prohibitive favorite. Next in the betting is England 7/1 (take that one with a large helping of salt) and Italy and Germany both at 17/2.
So there you are ten reasons why some country other than Brazil will be hoisting the World Cup on July 9. Convinced now? Good, because to be honest, I'm not.
