By MSN’s Matt Ball
Last updated March 10 2006
Link:
http://worldcup.uk.msn.com/features/biggestmyth/easymatches/Winning international football matches is tough these days. Or is it?
I’m sure it was Sir Bobby Robson who first told us that “there are no easy matches in international football any more”. This would have been after an abject display by England against the Soviet Union at Wembley in June 1984 when he was manager.
Or maybe it was Graham Taylor who said it after England lost 2-0 to the US in 1993.
Whoever it was, their claim seems to be truer now than it ever was.
Modern coaching techniques have helped nations much weaker than the US or Russia to find ways of defending effectively against better teams for 90 minutes. Instead of being thrashed off the pitch, these minnows (think Lichtenstein, Luxembourg etc) can now doggedly resist the might of heavyweight opposition and go home “over the moon” with a narrow defeat. Occasionally they can sneak the odd draw.
Recent examples of this phenomenon in the European qualifiers for this World Cup include Azerbaijan losing 1-0 to England; the Faroe Islands losing 2-0 to France and Malta holding Croatia to a draw. In years past, all three matches would have ended in a severe drubbing for the underdog.
So Bobby (or Graham) was right. There are no easy matches in international football these days.
Wrong.
So wrong.
Pull the other one
This lame excuse has been trotted out by England managers whenever their team produces a poor performance and is now being increasingly adopted around Europe by both coaches and players. Here’s a recent comment by Serbia & Montenegro striker Savo Milosevic: "In a World Cup there are a lot of things that influence what happens. There are no easy matches." Yeah, right.
We’ll take a look at the statistics in a moment but first let’s decide what constitutes an “easy” match in international football.
If a World Cup qualifier ends 3-0 that’s usually quite a big margin these days (I’m sure Bobby, Graham and Savo would agree), so 4-0 would be a sound beating and 5-0 a damn good tonking. Thus by any reckoning a match in which a team scores at least six goals and concedes none or perhaps the odd one must qualify as a thrashing, which is otherwise known as an easy game.
If there were no easy matches in international football these days we should expect that no match would end with one team bagging at least six goals. So, how many qualifiers for this World Cup do you think involved one team scoring at least six times? None? A couple? Seven or eight perhaps? Could it be as high as ten?
The correct is answer is 51.
Easy matches everywhere
As there were 847 World Cup qualifiers that works out as an average of one easy match per 16.6 games. If a team was in a group of six in the qualifiers it will have played 10 matches - five home, five away. That would give it a 60% chance (10 divided by 16.6, as a percentage) of playing in one easy match, though it could have been on the wrong end of the scoreline.
The score in the easiest match during World Cup 2006 qualifying was 13-0, perpetrated by Bermuda on Montserrat (John Nusum and Damon Ming both got a hat-trick), with the Maldives’ 12-0 thrashing of Mongolia a close second. In the Oceania zone there was an easy match once in every four games.
Now that’s all very well for matches in far-flung countries but surely European fixtures must be a lot closer?
Well, it turns out that there are easy games a-plenty in Europe too.
Europe has it easier than Africa or S America
Thirteen European qualifying matches ended with one team scoring at least six goals, including Poland’s 8-0 demolition of Azerbaijan (that’s the same team England beat 1-0) and Portugal’s 7-1 annihilation of Russia.
There were more easy matches in European qualifiers than there were in the African zone (five) and in the South American zone (none). The easy match ratio for Europe (one easy match per 21.7 games) is also lower than for Africa (one per 38 games).
So when Sven or another European coach whose team plays poorly in June 2006 suggests that there are no easy matches in international football, do rant and rave as much as you like at the TV screen. You’re right, they’re wrong.
See the
full list of easy matches in the World Cup 2006 qualifiers. It makes interesting reading and you might want to print it out and keep it handy, just in case.
