November 28, 2020, 04:27:36 PM

Author Topic: What are the odds...  (Read 6748 times)

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Offline JayTheWrecker

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Re: What are the odds...
« Reply #30 on: May 06, 2006, 01:55:09 PM »
Ryan, let me ask you a question

lets say that just after Monty Hall opens the door and is about to ask the contestant if he wants to switch, the producer of the show receives an anonymous phone call warning that there is a bomb wired up to the engine of the car that is behind one of the two remaining doors. As a result, the studio is evacuated and the police eventually send in JayTheMechanic to find the car and dis-arm the bomb. So I walk into the studio and I see three doors, one of which is already opened showing a goat. What are the odds that the first door I pick is the one with the car behind it? and why are my odds of picking the correct door, greater than those of the contestant?
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Offline ndookie

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Re: What are the odds...
« Reply #31 on: May 06, 2006, 02:29:44 PM »
hmm , technically , your chance would be 50/50 , lower chances of getting it correct..hmm
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Offline Blue

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Re: What are the odds...
« Reply #32 on: May 06, 2006, 02:54:25 PM »
Ryan, let me ask you a question

lets say that just after Monty Hall opens the door and is about to ask the contestant if he wants to switch, the producer of the show receives an anonymous phone call warning that there is a bomb wired up to the engine of the car that is behind one of the two remaining doors. As a result, the studio is evacuated and the police eventually send in JayTheMechanic to find the car and dis-arm the bomb. So I walk into the studio and I see three doors, one of which is already opened showing a goat. What are the odds that the first door I pick is the one with the car behind it? and why are my odds of picking the correct door, greater than those of the contestant?

Jay,

The probability of you selecting the correct door (with the car) is 50%

But the probability of the bomb being behind the door which wasn't chosen by the contestant is still 67%.

Unfortunately, you don't have this information, so the odds of you picking a door that blows up in your face are higher than if you had seen the first part of the game show. If you had the extra info, you'd be less likely to die.  ;D

Offline ndookie

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Re: What are the odds...
« Reply #33 on: May 06, 2006, 03:07:15 PM »
so wait a minute ..

If he open the door to the car , it blow up ... how he supposed to disarm it now ?
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Offline Pointman

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Re: What are the odds...
« Reply #34 on: May 06, 2006, 03:09:47 PM »
what if you chose the correct answer(purely by luck) on the first pick. Why switch?

Pointman, it's the probability of picking the correct one that the question is about.

You have no way of knowing whether you picked the correct one until the second door is opened. But your chances of winning increase if you switch. The key thing is that the presenter will always open a door with a goat behind it, regardless of whether you have picked the correct door in the first place or not.

Ryan, if I choose a door(say #1) and the host opens #3 with the goat, then there are 2 unknowns and the odds of me having chosen the correct door is 50%. Why is it to my advantage to switch? assuming I don't want the goat. ;D
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Offline Blue

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Re: What are the odds...
« Reply #35 on: May 06, 2006, 03:31:30 PM »
what if you chose the correct answer(purely by luck) on the first pick. Why switch?

Pointman, it's the probability of picking the correct one that the question is about.

You have no way of knowing whether you picked the correct one until the second door is opened. But your chances of winning increase if you switch. The key thing is that the presenter will always open a door with a goat behind it, regardless of whether you have picked the correct door in the first place or not.

Ryan, if I choose a door(say #1) and the host opens #3 with the goat, then there are 2 unknowns and the odds of me having chosen the correct door is 50%. Why is it to my advantage to switch? assuming I don't want the goat. ;D

Pointman,

Say you choose door #1 - at this point you dont know which door the car is behind. you've made a random choice, selecting one out of 3 doors, so the probability that you have selected the correct door is 1 in 3, or 33%. Simple.

Since the probability must add up to 100%, this also means that the probability that the car is behind either door #2 or door #3 is 2 in 3, or 67%. Lets think of these doors as belonging to the host - so the host has a 2 in 3 chance of keeping his car.

Now to the important part. There are 2 key things:
1. The host knows which door the prize is behind.
2. And, regardless of whether you initially selected the correct door or not, the host will always open one door with a goat behind it. In other words, the chances of him opening a door with a goat behind it are 100% - he is not selecting at random.

Because of this, the probabilitty that the car was originally behind one of the host's doors remains unchanged (i.e. - it is still 67%)

Another way to think of it

Sometimes its easier to think of this problem, if we use 1000 doors rather than 3.

So - 1 car, 999 goats.

Same situation -  you pick a door. The host then throws open 998 of "his" 999 doors, showing u goats behind all of dem.

Now, keeping in mind that he did not select these doors at random - do you think it is more likely that the car is behind your 1 door (which you selected out of 1,000) or his one remaining door?  :thinking:





Offline Blue

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Re: What are the odds...
« Reply #36 on: May 06, 2006, 03:33:25 PM »
so wait a minute ..

If he open the door to the car , it blow up ... how he supposed to disarm it now ?

That is for Jay to answer, he is d mechanic  ;D

Offline JayTheWrecker

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Re: What are the odds...
« Reply #37 on: May 06, 2006, 03:51:51 PM »

Ryan, i want to thank you for posting this thread, it really made me think. I can see the light now. As you say the key is that Monty Hall MUST open a door that shows one of the two goats. If the Contestant makes it his policy to automatically switch when giving the choice then there are only 3 possibly scenarios, and in 2 out of the 3 possible scenarios the contestant picks the one with the car, hence 66.66666 percent

say,
door 1= Car
door 2= Goat 1
door 3= Goat 2

Scenario 1. Contestant picks Door 1(Car). Monty opens either door 2 or 3. Contestant switches to 2 or 3 and loses

Scenario 2. Contestant picks Door 2(Goat1)  Monty CANNOT open door 1 so HE MUST open door 3. Contestant switches to Door 1 and wins

Scenario 3. Contestant picks Door 3(Goat2) Monty CANNOT open door 1 so HE MUST open door 2. Contestant picks door 1 and wins

Ryan, I salute you  :beermug:
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Offline Pointman

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Re: What are the odds...
« Reply #38 on: May 06, 2006, 04:11:59 PM »

Ryan, i want to thank you for posting this thread, it really made me think. I can see the light now. As you say the key is that Monty Hall MUST open a door that shows one of the two goats. If the Contestant makes it his policy to automatically switch when giving the choice then there are only 3 possibly scenarios, and in 2 out of the 3 possible scenarios the contestant picks the one with the car, hence 66.66666 percent

say,
door 1= Car
door 2= Goat 1
door 3= Goat 2

Scenario 1. Contestant picks Door 1(Car). Monty opens either door 2 or 3. Contestant switches to 2 or 3 and loses

Scenario 2. Contestant picks Door 2(Goat1)  Monty CANNOT open door 1 so HE MUST open door 3. Contestant switches to Door 1 and wins

Scenario 3. Contestant picks Door 3(Goat2) Monty CANNOT open door 1 so HE MUST open door 2. Contestant picks door 1 and wins

Ryan, I salute you  :beermug:

understood...VERY GOOD THREAD RYAN...post some more stuff like this. ;D
Trini to de bone; Pointman to de bone.

Offline Rastaman

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Re: What are the odds...
« Reply #39 on: May 06, 2006, 04:33:45 PM »

Ryan, i want to thank you for posting this thread, it really made me think. I can see the light now. As you say the key is that Monty Hall MUST open a door that shows one of the two goats. If the Contestant makes it his policy to automatically switch when giving the choice then there are only 3 possibly scenarios, and in 2 out of the 3 possible scenarios the contestant picks the one with the car, hence 66.66666 percent

say,
door 1= Car
door 2= Goat 1
door 3= Goat 2

Scenario 1. Contestant picks Door 1(Car). Monty opens either door 2 or 3. Contestant switches to 2 or 3 and loses

Scenario 2. Contestant picks Door 2(Goat1)  Monty CANNOT open door 1 so HE MUST open door 3. Contestant switches to Door 1 and wins

Scenario 3. Contestant picks Door 3(Goat2) Monty CANNOT open door 1 so HE MUST open door 2. Contestant picks door 1 and wins

Ryan, I salute you  :beermug:

understood...VERY GOOD THREAD RYAN...post some more stuff like this. ;D
Jay ah feel you in the wrong profession...try teaching

Ah like how you break it down for us lesser folks to understand....

Offline Feliziano

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Re: What are the odds...
« Reply #40 on: May 06, 2006, 10:26:06 PM »
that was a good explanation Jay..if we ent win de car..we could still curry up dem goat  ;D
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Offline Rastaman

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Re: What are the odds...
« Reply #41 on: May 06, 2006, 11:52:38 PM »
that was a good explanation Jay..if we ent win de car..we could still curry up dem goat  ;D
dem goat can go tobago an earn allya some money ;D ;D ;D ;D
Only you could come up with that kinda responce.....

Offline Rastaman

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Re: What are the odds...
« Reply #42 on: May 07, 2006, 12:00:35 AM »
aye where you was hiding man

Righ let me buss the mark.....when no body else is online West Coast finds all the updated Threads and post on them....He does be real bored.... Right now it is 7:00 am here what time is it by you ???

Offline JayTheWrecker

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Re: What are the odds...
« Reply #43 on: May 07, 2006, 02:12:38 AM »
that was a good explanation Jay..if we ent win de car..we could still curry up dem goat  ;D

only a Trini would think about making a trini cook after not winning the car  ;D
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Offline ndookie

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Re: What are the odds...
« Reply #44 on: May 07, 2006, 08:28:24 AM »
well wha yuh expect , yuh in a trini forum !

i for the curry goat !
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Offline !aCkuT

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Re: What are the odds...
« Reply #45 on: May 07, 2006, 01:32:36 PM »
No..1 cause most likely d host playin wit yuh head
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Offline Pointman

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Re: What are the odds...
« Reply #46 on: May 07, 2006, 03:25:50 PM »
that was a good explanation Jay..if we ent win de car..we could still curry up dem goat  ;D

only a Trini would think about making a trini cook after not winning the car  ;D

When Ryan say was either goats and cyar ah hadda think long and hard cause i woulda be satisfied with de goats and dem. curry goat oui ;D
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