So I know it's early days but I think we can start trying to guess how the Hex will shape up and what are the most probable ways of us qualifying.
The other teams in the Hex are the USA, Mexico, Costa Rica, Honduras and El Salvador. We play each team home and away (10 games).
Historically since the Hex format was created (1998), third place has been won with 14, 16 or 17 points (Automatic Promotion). Fourth place has been won with 12, 14, 13 points (Playoff Spot). The playoff is going to be tougher this time around (IMO) with the possibility of playing Uruguay (at this point) or teams like Ecuador, Colombia.
I think it'll be easier for us to get 3rd in the Hex than to win the playoff if end up there again. Here are some of my guesses for how the games could go and our possibility of getting points in the Hex.
Away Games
USA - I can't see us winning this game, nor drawing. However it's important that we make sure not to concede too many goals. I think a 0-1 or 0-2 loss can be seen as positive for our goal difference.
Mexico - I also think this fixture is too difficult for us to win or draw. Much like the USA away game, it's important we don't concede more than two goals.
Costa Rica - Very difficult game... but Costa Rica hasn't been looking that hot these days and they had a relatively easy qualifying run. I think we have a shot at a draw if we play really well, but it's a long shot.
Honduras - With their current form this is going to be really difficult. But I think for us to have a chance at 3rd place, we need to get a point from this game. Central American teams have a tendency to choke when it matters (Remember us beating them in Honduras and pretty much knocking them out in 2001 when we were already knocked out), so winning this game is a definite possibility but by no means an easy feat...
El Salvador - Minimum a point from this game, but I feel if we don't win this one we cannot get 3rd spot. It's no easy game, their crowd is intimidating but not as much as Guatemala.
Home Games
USA - With our psychological boost of getting a win regardless of the team they fielded, I think we have a real shot of at least drawing them at home. If we lose though I don't think it's going to kill our chances.
Mexico - Need a draw at least... but a win would be huge. We've done it before (2000, 2005) and would've won in 2001 if Eve didn't get sent off.
Costa Rica - Depends on if they pick up their form or not. We can't lose this game... a win would definitely put us in contention for 3rd, a draw makes 4th more likely (like in 2005).
Honduras - Must win game, possibly the hardest of our home games that we NEED three points from. They have a good record at the stadium against us, last game we lost 2-4. We cannot let that happen this time!
El Salvador - If we don't win this game, 3rd or 4th will probably be out of reach.
---------
I think the draw is going to have a major impact on our chances. If, like in 2005, we get a home fixture against Mexico and/or the USA at the end of qualifying, then this changes things as they may have already qualified and would field a weaker team.
Right now Mexico is playing poorly but it would be naive to say they're on the same level as us based on history. I'm not sure if it's better for us that the USA and Mexico pull far ahead as they usually do or it becomes a big dog fight for 2nd to 4th (I think it's safe to think the USA will likely qualify early). Costa Rica and Honduras' form is a big uncertainty... like T&T in 2000 it is possible that Honduras has peaked too early and will under perform in the Hex (we hope!). El Salvador is also pretty uncertain, they might be a bit demoralised with their last game... Let's hope the central american curse hits them hard!
Forgetting all our off the field and selection issues, I don't think T&T has peaked yet which is probably a good sign for us. I hope we start off well this time around unlike in 2005 otherwise our only shot might be the playoff and I don't feel confident about that at all.
For us to get 17 points (highest amount needed for 3rd so far), I theorise our most probable scenario is getting 10 points from home games (Wins versus El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica, Draw Mexico), 7 points from away (Win versus El Salvador, Honduras, Draw Costa Rica). Not impossible but very difficult.
For the 14 points for the playoff spot, instead of the above can perhaps draw Costa Rica at home and lose to Mexico at home. I can't see getting 3rd or 4th by not defeating El Salvador and Honduras without getting 3 points from either the USA and Mexico combined, which I think is highly dependent on the draw.
What are your predictions?