The interesting piece about tonight is that the traditional top 3 will be playing the traditionally weaker half for the first time. This is where the big boys stand up to be counted.
USA, Mex and CR should all win, on paper and history, which will see the opening of the now familiar gap that comes around every qualifying series.
USA - 7
CR - 6pana
Mexico - 6
TT - 2
Honduras - 1
El Salva - 1
but this is CONCACAF, home to the unpredictable, where all predictions are usually wrong.
We have the potential tonight to throw the group wide open for the rest of games and keep the USA from running away early and being already qualified by August scenario.
What we also want is draws in the other games.
In about 12 hours, we will have a pretty good idea on what will be happening in CONCACAF.
USA vs TT
Make no doubt about it, USA are extremely strong favourites to take 3 pts tonight.
We have not showed that we can compete head to head with them since we lost 2-3 (Dwarika's double) isomewhere in the mid 90's. We have been totally outclassed in every game since then.
If T&T gets a point tonight, it will have huge consequences for the rest of the competition. teams.It will deny the US surging ahead to 7pts ahead of everyone else and more importantly, the belief that anyone can beat them as the 2 weakest teams in the group took points off them.
If it goes according to script though, USA will move to 7 and head the table. very hard to see them faltering after that.
TT will be stuck on 2, when we wanted to be about 4 pts after these 3 games. It will make the Costa Rica home game in early June the do-or-die for our campaign (the equivalent of the Panama game at home in 2005).
Honduras vs Mexico
On paper, the most interesting game of the lot. In previous years, you already had mexico as favourites, even playing in tegucigalpa. Honduras will be playing at home for the first time. they came in with all the hype from the last round, but have not started that great, even if they played 2 away games. they might still be thinking of the lost 2 pts in POS. But they are in a must win tonight. if they lose, they will be stuck on 1 after 3 games, very poor by their standards, and not qualifying form. A draw will not be doom and gloom, they will be in a similar situation to T&T, making their next game in early June do-or-die. A win, and they will be back in a good position, 4pts after 3 games with only a single home game against potentially the hardest team they will host. Mexico on the other hand will not be too upset if they get a draw, which they did late last year as well to qualify for the final round. A win will see them surging back to the top 2 and will be hard to see them failing after this to miss one of the automatic spots.
I feel this game will end in a draw.
Costa Rica vs El Salvador
This is it for El Salvador. They were ranked as the weakest team at the start and have shown some fight. Every single WCQ, one team usually flops big time. Last time it was Panama, series before was T&T, when we got like 4-5 pts total I think in 10 games. if El Salvador loses, they in a bind, with only 1 pt in 3, having already played at home twice. They are not traditionally a good travelling team as well. A loss will pretty much be the end of the road for them, as it will be tough to see them travelling to Mexico, USA and T&T, where they have a very poor record.
I dont see el Salvador getting anything in this game.
