MEN
100: Bolt, Gay, Bailey
200: Bolt, Gay, Crawford
400: Merritt, Wariner, Quow
110H: Robles, Trammell, Payne
400H: Phillips, Van Zyl, Jackson
4x100m: JAM, USA, TRI
4x400m USA, BAH, GBR
WOMEN
100: Stewart, Fraser, Jeter
200: Felix, Campbell-Brown, Ferguson
400: Richards, Williams, Krivoshapka
100H: Harper, Mc Clellan, Perry
400H: Demus, Walker, Lucas
4x100m: JAM, USA, RUS
4x400m RUS, USA, JAM
Notes:
European athletes will be almost a complete non-factor in any event with starting blocks, including Ohuruogu who, after a stellar run of being 400m Commonwealth, World and Olympic champion in the last 3 seasons, will not factor in Berlin.
I am not as convinced as I was in Beijing that Tyson Gay's leg will NOT hold up for 4(
rounds. I think he squeaks by fitness-wise, but not enough to trouble the 'Lightning'. Gay has my eternal respect for being the only one of the established veterans this year to RESPOND to the Bolt challenge, and not run FROM it. I would like to pick him - maybe if he sat out the 100m and caught a tired Bolt at 200m which MIGHT work, but (as I never did) Gay won't sit out the 100m even though he is probably a better 200m runner, and unfortunately MAY re-injure his groin trying. I can't pick Tyson because I can't picture the point at which he pulls away (even a little) from Usain Bolt. Not happening.
This is certainly the first time in history that a man (TYSON GAY) who THIS SEASON has run 9.77 and 19.58 LEGALLY, is being picked by almost no-one to win his events - not even Track and Field News.
I picked Trinidad in the relay for 3rd last year and many scoffed at it being a 'HOMER' pick. They got 2nd in Beijing. Same pick this year, even though the parts aren't as strong. Stuff happens in a relay competition - definitely did last year (USA, UK)
Josanne Lucas, formerly of Auburn University, becomes TnT's first female medalist at WORLDS ever, in the 400m H.
The W 100m hurdles is the hardest event to pick this year, so I chose according to what history shows happens - Bobby Kersee athletes win. ('93, '95, '99, '04, '05, '07, '08 are the years a Bobby Kersee 100m hurdler was world or Olympic champion - ridiculous amounts of success!) Mc Clellan is in there because no hurdler not named Terrence Trammell starts better under pressure.
Asafa? - No. Despite my firm belief when I said it on TV on the track in the stadium in Kingston earlier this year. I would love to be wrong here, but....no. The saga continues.
M400H - Hard to call as well, everyone is all over the place beating everyone else. I smell a first-time winner. Isa has paid his dues.
Sanya, if she wins this one, as I believe she will (of course, I and everyone else thought this last year as well) will NEVER lose another championship in her prime. Take that.
200m for men will be closer than everyone thinks it will. 100m Men? - er - not so much. 100m women will be close - for 3rd.
How come no-one noticed that Melaine Walker smacked hurdle 6 and still ran a SB in Monaco? She is one of the most dangerous 2nd place picks here, but I think she will just lose to the in-form-to-leave-Berlin-as-the-400mH WR-holder Demus, who finally confirms the greatness predicted for her a decade ago.
Belgium, with the Borlees, might be a factor in the 4x400m with 3:04 already without them, but I have heard little from the twins since NCAAs, so no medal.
