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Offline asylumseeker

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Barack Obama Thread
« on: September 09, 2011, 01:46:53 PM »
Will President Obama be re-elected?

No? Yes? Why? Why not?

« Last Edit: May 22, 2015, 05:50:26 AM by Flex »
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Offline kicker

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2011, 02:10:07 PM »
Depends on who wins on the other side.

Only Romney can beat him. 
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Offline Dutty

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2011, 02:28:47 PM »
Depends on who wins on the other side.

Only Romney can beat him. 

wuh bout de george bush clone, yuh doh rate he or wha?
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Offline Socafan

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #3 on: September 09, 2011, 02:57:42 PM »
Depends on who wins on the other side.

Only Romney can beat him. 

wuh bout de george bush clone, yuh doh rate he or wha?

When dey start to pong he so. He want to privatise social Security or medicaid or one ah them. Plus when he start to talk about all the jobs he created in Texas (and he always talking about that) and they start to hit him with "but weren't most of those government jobs? :o"
And when SNL start playing the George Bush Clone card, plenty hilarious fodder there,he eh go have a chance. Is still Romney.
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Offline grimm01

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #4 on: September 09, 2011, 03:25:29 PM »
Depends on who wins on the other side.

Only Romney can beat him. 

agreed.

right now the Republican candidates all falling over themselves to please the Tea party, and Rick Perry is one of those who is extremely on the right of issues. his problem is the Tea party faithful not winning him a general election, it's the independents. how do you woo the independents if you spent the whole primary looking extreme and irrational? it will be a hard sell to swing from hard core conservative to middle of the road on issues for the general election... plus to do that means saying and doing things to piss off the Tea party who just help elect yuh as the Republican candidate.

the only Republican who talking anything sensible to me is Huntsman, but he too moderate for the Tea party and social conservatives. Romney may be a nice guy but he comes across as fake... not just fake like a used car salesman trying to make a sale fake, but trying so hard to not look fake, that his fakeness is comically obvious.


Offline Bakes

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #5 on: September 09, 2011, 03:29:33 PM »
Depends on who wins on the other side.

Only Romney can beat him. 

wuh bout de george bush clone, yuh doh rate he or wha?

When dey start to pong he so. He want to privatise social Security or medicaid or one ah them. Plus when he start to talk about all the jobs he created in Texas (and he always talking about that) and they start to hit him with "but weren't most of those government jobs? :o"
And when SNL start playing the George Bush Clone card, plenty hilarious fodder there,he eh go have a chance. Is still Romney.

He doh want to privitize.. he want to eliminate all three, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.  Is like he fuhget ole people is de most loyal voting bloc.  Even he handlers was trying to back track from that comment... but he reiterated it on Wednesday, standing firm.  Then yuh have all de secessionist talk.  Only person of all the candidates who could beat Obama is himself, and to date he's been doing a very good job at that.

Offline ribbit

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #6 on: September 09, 2011, 08:18:38 PM »
if it is de prez (illinois) vs. romney (ex gov. of mass.) - two northerners in a campaign. very atypical.

and high voter turnout seem like a sure thing with 9% unemployment.

Offline Conquering Lion

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #7 on: September 10, 2011, 09:19:43 AM »
No.

Plain and simple.....he got in under an excellent campaign and perfect circumstances where America was feelin it in their pocket. People had no other choice than go with the him for the sake of change.

People have short memories and will likely to back to their comfort zone and their usual voting patterns.
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Offline elan

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #8 on: September 10, 2011, 11:18:13 AM »
No.

Plain and simple.....he got in under an excellent campaign and perfect circumstances where America was feelin it in their pocket. People had no other choice than go with the him for the sake of change.

People have short memories and will likely to back to their comfort zone and their usual voting patterns.

Yes I pray the Republicans win Election. If yuh think things bad now for the lower and middle---->lower-middle class.

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Offline Trini _2026

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #9 on: September 10, 2011, 12:21:45 PM »
Yes ..... if the unemployment rate goes down .....
but Mitch McConnell stated his intention to make Obama a one term president they going all out for  Obama fail
« Last Edit: September 10, 2011, 12:50:46 PM by Trini _2014 »
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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2011, 01:30:22 AM »
Tuff luck dey Obama, you know the drill.  You would have had to be the greatest President the world has ever seen since the dawn of time possessing supernatural powers to be considered a good president. 
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Offline asylumseeker

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2011, 02:26:37 PM »
Democrats Fret Aloud Over Obama’s Chances
By MICHAEL BARBARO, JEFF ZELENY and MONICA DAVEY
NYT: September 10, 2011

Democrats are expressing growing alarm about President Obama’s re-election prospects and, in interviews, are openly acknowledging anxiety about the White House’s ability to strengthen the president’s standing over the next 14 months.

Elected officials and party leaders at all levels said their worries have intensified as the economy has displayed new signs of weakness. They said the likelihood of a highly competitive 2012 race is increasing as the Republican field, once dismissed by many Democrats as too inexperienced and conservative to pose a serious threat, has started narrowing to two leading candidates, Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, who have executive experience and messages built around job creation.

And in a campaign cycle in which Democrats had entertained hopes of reversing losses from last year’s midterm elections, some in the party fear that Mr. Obama’s troubles could reverberate down the ballot into Congressional, state and local races.

“In my district, the enthusiasm for him has mostly evaporated,” said Representative Peter A. DeFazio, Democrat of Oregon. “There is tremendous discontent with his direction.”

The president’s economic address last week offered a measure of solace to discouraged Democrats by employing an assertive and scrappy style that many supporters complain has been absent for the last year as he has struggled to rise above Washington gridlock. Several Democrats suggested that he watch a tape of the jobs speech over and over and use it as a guide until the election.

But a survey of two dozen Democratic officials found a palpable sense of concern that transcended a single week of ups and downs. The conversations signaled a change in mood from only a few months ago, when Democrats widely believed that Mr. Obama’s path to re-election, while challenging, was secure.

“The frustrations are real,” said Representative Elijah E. Cummings of Maryland, who was the state chairman of Mr. Obama’s campaign four years ago. “I think we know that there is a Barack Obama that’s deep in there, but he’s got to synchronize it with passion and principles.”

There is little cause for immediate optimism, with polls showing Mr. Obama at one of the lowest points of his presidency.

His own economic advisers concede that the unemployment rate, currently 9.1 percent, is unlikely to drop substantially over the next year, creating a daunting obstacle to re-election.

Liberals have grown frustrated by some of his actions, like the decision this month to drop tougher air-quality standards.

And polling suggests that the president’s yearlong effort to reclaim the political center has so far yielded little in the way of additional support from the moderates and independents who tend to decide presidential elections.

“The alarms have already gone off in the Democratic grass roots,” said Robert Zimmerman, a member of the Democratic National Committee from New York, who hopes the president’s jobs plan can be a turning point. “If the Obama administration hasn’t heard them, they should check the wiring of their alarm system.”

At a gathering of the Democratic National Committee in Chicago this weekend, some party leaders sounded upbeat after they toured the Obama campaign headquarters. But others expressed anxiety that Mr. Obama’s accomplishments were not being conveyed loudly enough to ordinary people, that Republican lawmakers were making it impossible for him to get more done, and that Mr. Obama’s conciliatory approach might be translating to some voters as weakness.

“Now that they’re slapping him in the side of the face, he’s coming back,” said William George, a committee member from Pennsylvania. “He needs to start stomping his foot and pounding the desk.” At the White House and at Mr. Obama’s campaign headquarters in Chicago, officials bristled at the critiques, which they dismissed as familiar intraparty carping and second-guessing that would give way to unity and enthusiasm once the nation is facing a clear choice between the president and the Republican nominee.

Jim Messina, the campaign manager for the president’s re-election, said the criticism was largely a “Washington conversation” that did not match up with the on-the-ground enthusiasm for Mr. Obama among his network of supporters. Yet even without a primary challenger, the campaign purposefully started its effort early to allow concerns from supporters to be aired.

To reassure nervous Democrats, the president’s campaign aides are traveling the country with PowerPoint presentations that spell out Mr. Obama’s path to re-election. Their pitch is that Mr. Obama’s appeal has grown in traditionally Republican states like Arizona, where there are fast-growing Hispanic populations, and that Republicans have alienated independent voters with “extreme” positions on popular programs like Medicare.

“We always knew 2011 was, in part, a conversation with our supporters and a time to tell the story to our base to make sure they understand what he has gotten done,” Mr. Messina said. “Our supporters are reasonable and need to be reminded about the things we’ve done.”

He added: “No one is calling me up and yelling. They are people saying: ‘How can we get the word out? How do we better talk about it?’ ”

For Mr. Obama’s strongest supporters, his jobs speech on Thursday night to a joint session of Congress seemed to affirm their belief that after a rough patch, the White House had seized the upper hand, however temporarily, in both substantive and political terms.

After ceding much of the debate over the economy to Republicans, they said, Mr. Obama had framed next year’s election as a struggle between a president with a plan for creating jobs and reducing the deficit and a Republican Party that would rather score political points and adhere slavishly to ideological positions than address the needs of Americans.

Gov. Martin O’Malley of Maryland, who attended the speech, described a changed president, no longer so reluctant to be outwardly aggressive. “He seemed liberated for the fight and very confident in his own skin,” Mr. O’Malley said.

But given the risk of voters’ locking in judgments that Mr. Obama’s presidency has failed to address the economy adequately or to deliver on its promise of changing Washington, many Democrats said that both the speech and Mr. Obama’s change in tone had been long overdue.

“He should have given it earlier,” said Representative John D. Dingell of Michigan.

Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio said, “He’s got to engage, make the contrast and occasionally be combative.”

The president is already embracing the suggestion that he spend more time outside Washington, which emerged as a recurring theme in the interviews with Democrats. He promoted his economic plan in Virginia on Friday and has trips to North Carolina and Ohio on tap this week.

At the Democratic National Committee meeting in Chicago, Mannie Rodriguez, a committee member from Colorado, said Democrats needed to find a new blast of energy — something to remind them of what they felt in 2008 when Mr. Obama was elected on a slogan of hope and change.

“We need to work more on the message,” Mr. Rodriguez said, adding that much of Mr. Obama’s challenge stems from a group of Republicans who “simply say no” to all of his advances. “We have to re-energize people and get them back to the party.”

In many parts of the country, Democrats are still reeling from the punishing defeat in the 2010 elections, which gave Republicans control of a majority of governor’s seats and legislative chambers. State Democratic leaders are criticizing the White House with candor, fretting aloud about the president’s electoral vulnerability.

“If the election were held today, it would be extremely close here in Florida,” said Jon M. Ausman, a member of the Democratic National Committee from Florida.

Problems for Mr. Obama in Florida, Mr. Ausman said, could trickle down into next year’s Senate race there, where Bill Nelson, a Democrat, faces re-election. “Too many people here have lost their jobs,” Mr. Ausman said.

For all the hand-wringing among Democrats, some party leaders say Mr. Obama has time to reverse his slipping fortunes — but not much.

“I think there’s an uneasy feeling, but it’s a little early for an ulcer to develop,” said Representative Gerald E. Connolly of Virginia. “Obviously, the dark cloud over everything is the economic performance.”

Mr. DeFazio recalled attending a dozen or so town-hall-style meetings recently in his district, a slice of western Oregon that Mr. Obama carried in 2008 by 11 percentage points. Mr. DeFazio said party loyalists had bluntly said they were reconsidering their support.

“I have one heck of a lot of Democrats saying, ‘I voted for him before, don’t know if I can do it again,’ ” he said.
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Think of the 2022 conversation regarding reparations as the item tabled for future discussion when initially raised for negotiation during talks in 1834. A lot of intere$t has accrued.

Offline asylumseeker

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2011, 03:05:20 PM »
I asked the question; therefore, it's only fair that I provide my view.

If the election were to be held tomorrow, Obama could win. Win, but not comfortably. But, there are no snap elections on the US landscape ... November 2012 is 14 months away.

In my view, there are some potentially disturbing social issues brewing at the state level in the US ... should these issues coalesce with existing economic disgruntlement, there will be a significant crisis presented the Obama campaign. I'm sure Mitch McConnell is doing his darnedest to foment the coalescing. Having social and economic conservatives pissed off is one thing ... having them united is another.

This election presently rides on domestic policy formulation and that's unlikely to change on present course. Even with the nullification of Osama bin Laden, the removal of Moammar Qaddafi, the realignment of Afghan and Pakistani issues, and "front page minimization" of Iranian and North-Korean centered issues, the administration has not been able to claim more than a Pyrrhic victory. AGAIN, even with the nullification of Osama bin Laden ...

Indeed, the disenchantment of the Netanyahu government with the Obama administration and concurrent problematics with Turkey's relations with Israel don't assist the situation, and could well prove to be volatile. Yet still, this is a domestic policy election given on the ground economic realities and the American penchant for insularity within the motivated electorate. I have doubts regarding the ability of Democrats to mitigate the damage. They couldn't even address the Weiner matter in a timely and consolidated fashion.

I say it's too early to call ... I'll wait 4 months to assess the scene and the responsiveness of the administration as the re-election campaign becomes more/fully segmented from the White House's day to day administration.

Pay attention to the fortunes of Jon Huntsman. As the wind blows on that end, Romney might implode.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2011, 03:13:04 PM by asylumseeker »
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Think of the 2022 conversation regarding reparations as the item tabled for future discussion when initially raised for negotiation during talks in 1834. A lot of intere$t has accrued.

Offline Deeks

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2011, 04:30:38 PM »
next time allyuh have a Dem in the white, go and vote in the mid term elections. we should not sit on we arses and think the man is a magician.

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #14 on: September 12, 2011, 04:38:16 PM »
next time allyuh have a Dem in the white, go and vote in the mid term elections. we should not sit on we arses and think the man is a magician.

He is soft on too many issues...too much deference to the Republican led congress..way too much.

Offline Bakes

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #15 on: September 12, 2011, 05:37:00 PM »
next time allyuh have a Dem in the white, go and vote in the mid term elections. we should not sit on we arses and think the man is a magician.

He is soft on too many issues...too much deference to the Republican led congress..way too much.


Much truth in both statements.

Offline ribbit

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #16 on: September 12, 2011, 06:48:44 PM »
next time allyuh have a Dem in the white, go and vote in the mid term elections. we should not sit on we arses and think the man is a magician.

He is soft on too many issues...too much deference to the Republican led congress..way too much.

not just de republicans. he particularly attuned to certain interests.

Offline Preacher

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #17 on: September 12, 2011, 09:36:53 PM »
next time allyuh have a Dem in the white, go and vote in the mid term elections. we should not sit on we arses and think the man is a magician.

He is soft on too many issues...too much deference to the Republican led congress..way too much.

not just de republicans. he particularly attuned to certain interests.

The last thing Obama wants is to be labeled as a hardliner. 
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truetrini

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #18 on: September 12, 2011, 10:01:56 PM »
next time allyuh have a Dem in the white, go and vote in the mid term elections. we should not sit on we arses and think the man is a magician.

He is soft on too many issues...too much deference to the Republican led congress..way too much.

not just de republicans. he particularly attuned to certain interests.

The last thing Obama wants is to be labeled as a hardliner. 

He has already been likened to a Nazi, Hitler, Socialist, Communist etc...there is no risk for that Preacher.  He should stick to his guns and stop pl;aying into republican hands time and time again.

he had health care reform passed as a largely republican bill and they still call it Obamacare..he is too damn soft!

Offline Preacher

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #19 on: September 13, 2011, 12:22:56 AM »
He's also been called The Anti-Christ.  lol  But TC I ain't know if he's ready to take the "What else can they do to me road."  If he takes that road his own party will dis-own him.  They ready to call the man the worst President in US history.   :pissedoff:    All the Dems chips are on him.  The got nothing else coming for the next 8 years.
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Offline asylumseeker

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #20 on: September 13, 2011, 08:35:35 AM »
Let me ask a question: what's part of the formula for a black man to be successful in America?
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Think of the 2022 conversation regarding reparations as the item tabled for future discussion when initially raised for negotiation during talks in 1834. A lot of intere$t has accrued.

truetrini

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #21 on: September 13, 2011, 08:41:57 AM »
Let me ask a question: what's part of the formula for a black man to be successful in America?

Let me answer by asking another question:  "What other country in the world has as many successful black men as America?"

Offline asylumseeker

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #22 on: September 13, 2011, 10:24:22 AM »
Let me ask a question: what's part of the formula for a black man to be successful in America?

Let me answer by asking another question:  "What other country in the world has as many successful black men as America?"

Nigeria.
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Think of the 2022 conversation regarding reparations as the item tabled for future discussion when initially raised for negotiation during talks in 1834. A lot of intere$t has accrued.

truetrini

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #23 on: September 13, 2011, 11:26:11 AM »
Let me ask a question: what's part of the formula for a black man to be successful in America?

Let me answer by asking another question:  "What other country in the world has as many successful black men as America?"

Nigeria.

so in order to be successful as a black man maybe you need to be as corrupt as those in Nigeria?

Offline asylumseeker

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #24 on: September 13, 2011, 12:54:21 PM »
The real question is how does the number of successful black men answer my question.
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Think of the 2022 conversation regarding reparations as the item tabled for future discussion when initially raised for negotiation during talks in 1834. A lot of intere$t has accrued.

Offline Andre

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #25 on: September 13, 2011, 01:05:00 PM »
Let me ask a question: what's part of the formula for a black man to be successful in America?

Let me answer by asking another question:  "What other country in the world has as many successful black men as America?"

Trinidad

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #26 on: September 14, 2011, 08:07:49 AM »
The real question is how does the number of successful black men answer my question.

yur question is supposed to be an answer to itself. yuh talking in circles like dog chasing its tail. what medication yuh on? ???

Offline asylumseeker

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #27 on: September 14, 2011, 11:00:42 AM »
next time allyuh have a Dem in the white, go and vote in the mid term elections. we should not sit on we arses and think the man is a magician.

He is soft on too many issues...too much deference to the Republican led congress..way too much.

not just de republicans. he particularly attuned to certain interests.

The last thing Obama wants is to be labeled as a hardliner. 

Is that your enlightened position? Every POTUS is attuned to interest ... particularly self-interest. What interests are you referring to?

+++

On the issue of Obama being soft ... Obama's most sensible path to the White House was that of assuming a moderate mantle. I don't believe it was insincere. I think it was the most practical approach. That he would adhere to the parameters of a moderate approach upon taking office also should come as no surprise. Has his moderate stance opened him up to the charge of being soft? Yes, absolutely. Why so? Would he be open to this charge but for the Republican intransigence? To a degree. A significantly lesser degree.

Does this perceived softness mean that he is weak? No. Does this perceived softness mean that he is perceived as a weak president? Perhaps.

What's handicapping him from acting otherwise? Why is he holding his hand?

Is his moderation and path to the White House reflective of the moderate accommodations that could be viewed as necessary variables in the equation of Blacks achieving success in the US? Is there a formula for black men to be successful in America? If so, what's part of that formula?

Preacher raises what I suggest are very good points.

Although Obama effectively neutralized race as an impediment in getting to the White House, race remains a factor in his calculus and in the calculus of his opponents. In this regard, I think Obama possibly has less political capital and room to maneuver than would a "traditional" president in the same circumstances ... all other things being equal or held constant.

To what degree is the weight of legacy a burden on him? Republicans are hoping to malign him as leaving a taste worse than Jimmy Carter. Does a FUBAR by Obama impede the presidential prospects of a subsequent black candidate? Why should Carter's legacy be less detrimental in generational terms than Obama's?

Is any of this lost on Obama? I doubt it.
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Think of the 2022 conversation regarding reparations as the item tabled for future discussion when initially raised for negotiation during talks in 1834. A lot of intere$t has accrued.

Offline asylumseeker

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #28 on: September 21, 2011, 10:54:06 PM »
I asked the question; therefore, it's only fair that I provide my view.

If the election were to be held tomorrow, Obama could win. Win, but not comfortably. But, there are no snap elections on the US landscape ... November 2012 is 14 months away.

In my view, there are some potentially disturbing social issues brewing at the state level in the US ... should these issues coalesce with existing economic disgruntlement, there will be a significant crisis presented the Obama campaign. I'm sure Mitch McConnell is doing his darnedest to foment the coalescing. Having social and economic conservatives pissed off is one thing ... having them united is another.

This election presently rides on domestic policy formulation and that's unlikely to change on present course. Even with the nullification of Osama bin Laden, the removal of Moammar Qaddafi, the realignment of Afghan and Pakistani issues, and "front page minimization" of Iranian and North-Korean centered issues, the administration has not been able to claim more than a Pyrrhic victory. AGAIN, even with the nullification of Osama bin Laden ...

Indeed, the disenchantment of the Netanyahu government with the Obama administration and concurrent problematics with Turkey's relations with Israel don't assist the situation, and could well prove to be volatile.
Yet still, this is a domestic policy election given on the ground economic realities and the American penchant for insularity within the motivated electorate. I have doubts regarding the ability of Democrats to mitigate the damage. They couldn't even address the Weiner matter in a timely and consolidated fashion.

I say it's too early to call ... I'll wait 4 months to assess the scene and the responsiveness of the administration das the re-election campaign becomes more/fully segmented from the White House's day to day administration.

Pay attention to the fortunes of Jon Huntsman. As the wind blows on that end, Romney might implode.


Let's review the record. Since posting the comments above much has occurred. Israel has risen on the agenda with the Palestinian call for statehood via the UN. Obama bridged the divide with Netanyahu out of national interest (that happens to coincide with his electoral interest ... although it's doubtful it will create as much traction with single-issue voters as it did in '08).

The Palestinian street regards the US position as contrary to the sentiment of the Arab Spring. Trouble could be brewing in the West Bank and Gaza due to that. Turkey and Israel have heightened tensions steadily ratcheting up.

The by-election in NY in which Mayor Koch's voice proved influential in overturning decades of fidelity to the Democratic Party also served to raise question marks about Obama's possibilities - although it's said Democratic performance in that constituency was expected to be challenging even if Koch didn't intervene. Although the economy was the driving force, that by-election included an element of concern regarding President Obama's perceived insensitivity to Israeli interests.

Also, the release of the American hostages by Iran and bombings/attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan against high profile targets (US Embassy, former Afghan PM Rabbani, and the important police official in Karachi have retaken the front page. Only North Korea seems to be on a cooling down period.

No burners are on low and economic woes are overheating. Imagine having to deal with all of that and domestic politics while the media pushes even lower approval ratings (or as the new genius refers to them "high disapproval ratings". Worries in de dance!
« Last Edit: September 21, 2011, 11:17:40 PM by asylumseeker »
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/yWUlurxAsik" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/yWUlurxAsik</a>

Think of the 2022 conversation regarding reparations as the item tabled for future discussion when initially raised for negotiation during talks in 1834. A lot of intere$t has accrued.

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Re: Will President Obama be re-elected?
« Reply #29 on: September 21, 2011, 11:28:03 PM »
Quote
The by-election in NY in which Mayor Koch's voice proved influential in overturning decades of fidelity to the Democratic Party also served to raise question marks about Obama's possibilities - although it's said Democratic performance in that constituency was expected to be challenging even if Koch didn't intervene. Although the economy was the driving force, that by-election included an element of concern regarding President Obama's perceived insensitivity to Israeli interests.

That's all it is... a bunch of Orthodox Jews and Israel zealots are hardly the most accurate bellwether on his chances for office.  Also, can't blame the disapproval ratings on a media push.