So I know we have a crucial double header against Guyana coming up in 3 weeks time.
But this morning I was actually thinking about going Brazil in 2014 seriously for the first time - logistics, time off, if I will be alive, when to pay down on stuff etc etc, inevitably my mind run on whether I will have to be choosing games with Trinidad in it or just go for the experience.
So I start thinking about our chances realistically to qualify.
I think seriously 90% of the people on this site believe that we will get past guyana but then get beaten by Costa Rica and Mexico in the semi-final round...Most people seem extremely unhappy about our state of affairs, recent results, the Jack Warner situation, not reaching the Gold Cup etc etc. By and large, its not the brightest time for T&T football.
But if you step back and look at the big picture, at the history of qualifying in CONCACAF, you will realise that nothing is clear cut.
Lets just assume and accept that we will beat Guyana over 2 legs and qualify for next hear, the situation will look like this:
Group A - United States, Jamaica, Guatemala, Haiti
Group B- Mexico, Costa Rica, El Salvador and T&T
Group C - Honduras, Cuba, Panama, Canada
Group A - US will obviously go through, I will not bet my house on Jamaica, as they are inconsistent. Haiti as well, so if Ja comes out flat and Haiti comes out flying, anything can happen. Obviously Guatemala will have something to say. But the key thing is that either of these 3 teams, T&T can beat at home and at least fight for a point on the road.
Group C - Tough group to call again,I dont see a definite winner. I honestly do not see Cuba making it out though, but like Group A, any of the other 3 teams can make it. Again the key point is - T&T can beat any of Honduras, Panama or Canada at home and be competitive on the road.
So far, we can compete against 3 out of 4 teams in the final round, I will take my chances against any of them (we all know we will be lucky to split the US games)....
So that leaves Group B - Mexico will win this group most likely, they are and have been in fine form last couple years. Their coach has built a 22 man squad that is an excellent unit. By far the best team in the region. But Mexico has a slight penchant for inconsistency, but I feel they are a definite lock for coming out this group. El Salvador is a beacon of inconsistency (like T&T), one day they look like CONCACAF powerhouses beating small teams to a pulp, next day they are put in their place. Personally, I rate 2 countries in Central America where I think T&T has a chance on the road - El Salvador and Panama. In 2010 WCQ we got 4pts from El Salvador, it should have been 6 except for the meltdown in the first game. So that brings us to Costa Rica. T&T has never matched up good vs COsta Rica, ever! Heck, we even lucky to draw. We can forget about beating them in San Jose....But to be honest, we do not need to actually do that... Costa Rica is also known for some surprising let downs against other central american teams, nothing is a given with them in their games vs Mexico and El Salvador. Its all about the matchup. So as much as we cheer for T&T, we will have to be cheering for whoever is playing Costa Rica. They are our big threat to the final Hex. If we can beat them at home, or avoid defeat, thats not that bad to be honest. It might sound ridiculous, but I can easier see us beating Mexico at home than Costa Rica, its just the way we match up against them.
Make no doubt about it, the semi-final round is gonna be our toughest round since 98 qualifiers when we had Costa Rica and USA in that group and we finish with 1 point after 6 games. But I cannot stress enough, we matchup very poorly against the US either home or away and much better vs Mexico in Trinidad.
The real prize will come if we manage to get out the Semi-final round, as the Hex will theoretically feature Mexico, USA, plus 3 other teams I would consider easier than costa rica for Trinidad to match up against.
I like those chances to be honest.
Can you imagine a scenario with T&T playing Jamaica, Panama and Guatemala for 1 and a half automatic spots??
Even more attarcative is the fact that we do not need to worry about the South American giants, as the 4th place CONCACAF team will play New Zealand. So making it to the HEX, I like our chances a great deal.
The problem as I see it is Costa Rica...and ourselves.
We need to get our house in order. Been around for too many campaigns to judge T&T from too early. All we need is some chemistry, good gameplans and a forward who goes on a run and we can reach far. We are our own worse enemy in this case.But these early qualifiers is a blessing. We actually playing games.
Once we qualify next month, there should be a small task force set up to figure out how to get past Costa Rica as well. Another key thing is momentum- T&T traditionally does well when we start of good, and poorly when we lose the first game. Hopefully we get El Salvador first in the semifinal round.
Once we can get out that semi group, I think we will do well in 2013....
So, not looking past Guyana too much, but the way I see it Costa Rica and T&T - the 2 big hurdles in the way of seeing T&T in Brazil 2014.....
