Six-month tobago battle
Thursday, June 7, 2012
Clevon Raphael To say that much is at stake in the pending election of the Tobago House of Assembly would be the political understatement of the decade. So many imponderables are hanging on these polls, the main one being the political careers of at least three of the protagonists—Chief Secretary Orville London, Minority Leader Ashworth Jack and, to a lesser extent, Opposition Leader Dr Keith Rowley.
One thing is certain, though: the fight will be a bruising one and one suspects no prisoners will be taken at the end of what promises to be an epic political battle in the sister island. Never has any national polling campaign been fought over such a lengthy period—six months. This in itself is indicative of the importance of these polls not only to Tobago but to the twin-island republic itself, although it is primarily for the control of the THA for the ensuing four-year term.
I will be returning to the THA election derby straight up to the date of the polls, which is still to be announced, but they have to take place by next January. We’ll today look at what is at stake for the leaders of the respective parties who we know so far are contesting and who are, in fact, those with the best chances of carrying the prize at the end of the day.
There are some noises coming from people like former Chief Secretary Hochoy “Heavy Roller” Charles, Debra Moore-Miggins and others, but with all respect to them, I don’t think they have any real chance of convincing the Tobago electorate to give them the key to the chamber of the THA.
Incumbent London is fighting not just to retain the THA for the People’s National Movement (PNM) but what could very well be for the continued existence of the PNM itself, that venerable party which was soundly beaten by the People’s Partnership coalition in the May 24, 2010, general election, to take control of the central government.
Under London’s stewardship the PNM lost both seats in the trouncing, which also saw the party losing big time in Trinidad. Since then political observers have been saying that the PNM is a badly injured political entity and because of its margin of defeat in 2010 (29-12), the PNM will never recuperate.
That is still highly debatable and if it should manage to remain in charge of the Assembly no doubt that would give London and Rowley some breathing space and its supporters some hope, in spite of what the naysayers have predicted. Dr Rowley, it is well known, is leading a party which has not yet given him its full support, and although former Prime Minister Patrick Manning can be now considered no longer a threat to Rowley’s leadership, the Opposition Leader may get a much needed boost to his political pride if he leads a successful PNM campaign in January.
Opposition to his leadership may openly break out if he carries his party into defeat in what will be his first major campaign. I know my PNM friends would howl “bias” when I say that of the three leaders—and others who may join the fray at a later date—the one best poised (on paper) to walk away with the trophy on the night of the polls is Jack.
Don’t begin to get hot under the collar, people, and let’s take a dispassionate look at the present scenario. The Tobago Organisation of the People (TOP), of which Jack is leader, took the two Tobago parliamentary seats in 2010, with the full force of the People’s Partnership in his corner.
And you can bet your last dish of crab and dumplings that the Kamla Persad-Bissessar-led PP administration is not going to let the TOP wage its fight against the opposition alone. That was evident when she headed a field of top party and government officials who launched the campaign in Scarborough last weekend.
And as we say in local parlance, who have the most corn would feed the most fowls. Persad-Bissessar lost no time in driving home that message in Tobago last Saturday, when she outlined a bag of promises which were in fact contained in the PP’s 2010 manifesto.
The main carrot is of course the pledge to amend the country’s constitution to grant Tobago internal self-government by the end of 2012. Uhmmmm…THA election in January...things to make you think, eh? That ISG issue has been a very emotive one with Tobagonians for a very long time and any central government which can deliver that would surely have an advantage over all others in the January political outing.
http://www.guardian.co.tt/columnist/2012-06-07/six-month-tobago-battle
