Persistence of an ideal —Pt 2Originally printed at
http://www.trinidadexpress.com/commentaries/Persistence_of_an_ideal__Pt_2-115302779.htmlBy Selwyn Ryan
February 4, 2011
Communal, proportional, or semi-proportional representation has consistently been on demand in one form or another during almost every election campaign that has been conducted in Trinidad and Tobago since the 1920s.
The 1986 election was however an exception.
That dramatic event silenced demands for proportional representation in that it seemed to demonstrate that one did not need to make basic changes in the electoral system in order to achieve ethnic representativeness and justice. Every significant ethnic group seemed to be in the "one love" coalition. The "all ah we is one" sentiment did not last long, however. Before one could say Jack Robinson, the society reverted to the status quo ante.Following the 1981 election, the demand for proportional representation resurfaced with a vengeance. The ONR had secured 91,700 votes (22.28 per cent) and won not a "damn seat". What galled many was that the PNM secured 26 seats of the 36 seats, the largest number it had ever won, while winning only 53.1 per cent of the popular vote (218,557).
Even more outrageous to the ONR crowd was the fact that the United Labour Front won a mere 62,781 votes (15.25 per cent) but secured as many as 8 seats. Clearly the electoral system had failed to produce a result that was fair and just; demands for electoral fairness increased.
Ironically, however, the electoral system overcorrected itself in 1986, and worked to the disadvantage of the PNM. The former ruling party won 32 per cent of the votes, but secured only three seats. (8.33 per cent) The newly-created NAR won 66 per cent of the popular vote and secured as many as 91.66 per cent of the seats. The PNM was made to pay the price for its obstinate refusal to consider any version of PR.
The matter was seriously debated by the
Hyatali Constitutional Committee which was appointed in 1987 to consider that and other matters. The Committee was sharply divided on the issue.
I was a member of that Committee, and supported PR.
The PNM remained flatly opposed, notwithstanding the thrashing it had got at the polls. The view which prevailed was that given the split in the NAR between its ULF and its ONR wings, the PNM would again emerge victorious in a three cornered battle, perhaps with less than 50 per cent of the vote.
That is in fact precisely what happened. The PNM got 232,900 or 45 per cent of the vote, and 21 seats; the UNC won 151,046 or 29 per cent of the votes and 36 per cent of the seats, while the NAR got 24.50 per cent of the votes (127,335) but no seats in Trinidad. It only secured the two Tobago seats. In sum, the ONR phenomenon, not a damn seat for them, had reasserted itself. There was much grief.
The Hyatali Committee had to decide what system could be devised for eliminating or substantially reducing the pathologies of the FTTP system without introducing other factors which might be even more undesirable. Given the fact that sentiment in favour of some form of PR was strong, and that the PNM was known to be stubborn, the committee decided that the status quo had to be modified, but only in a minimalist way. As the Committee put it, "we recognise that the rights of the majority must not be sacrificed to the whims of the minority, but it is patently unjust to deny minorities the right to have their views heard where it matters most.
In the end, the majority opted for putting PR in a bicameral senate, half of which was to be elected on a first past the post basis. Twelve of another 36 senators were to be chosen from a list on the basis of proportionality.Twenty of the remaining 24 were to be allocated to the ruling party, while four were to be chosen by the President, choosing in his own discretion from among some of the major social and economic groups in the society. The logic of this peculiar division was that it would allow the ruling party to govern without obstruction while at the same time genuflecting to the principle of proportionality.Three members of the committee dissented, repeating some of the criticisms which Dr Williams had raised in 1974 about the five per cent threshold. They argued that this defeated the logic of PR, which is that the percentage of the votes cast for each party and the percentage of seats secured by each party should be roughly the same. They complained that the elimination of parties that did not win at least five per cent of the total vote could increase the number of seats allocated to parties that won seats.
Notwithstanding the examples where the system has resulted in unanticipated and perverse outcomes, there continue to be voices who firmly believe that there is something fundamentally wrong about our electoral system which must be addressed. In their view, one could not continue to pretend that the ONR phenomenon, with its thousands of alienated detribalised citizens, would eventually go away. It is part of our demographic reality.Mr Panday has argued that "PR would destroy racism in politics." That is unlikely to happen in the near future. It could improve or worsen race relations. While one wishes to avoid extreme outcomes that could occur if either classic FTPP, classic PR, semi-proportional representation or the Tapia influenced "Civil Society Senate" model (aka,the Macco Senate) are employed, one has to make choices from among systems all of which have imperfections. One has to decide which is the better of the two models from one's own understanding of the realities, and leave the unknown unknowns to the future.
Notwithstanding my own ambivalence, my inclination would be to retain the bicameral system and find a formula to respect the concerns of the alienated citizenry in our midst who could never again vote either PNM or UNC, and introduce an element of proportionality into the Senate as Sir Ellis Clarke sought to do in his most recent proposals.In those proposals, 18 seats were to be selected on the basis of PR while 31 would come from local government bodies, a compromise which the PNM flatly refused. Clarke argued that electing the entire Senate on the basis of PR would make it too much of a mirror of the lower house.
Under Clarke's formula, the possibility remains that ruling parties could completely dominate the Senate, though the dynamics of politics could generate "perverse results".
In the final analysis, however, as we argued last week, the best approach is that which recognises that an arrangement which favours one group today may work against it in the future.The political system is now very fluid and dynamic and tribalism seems to be in remission. The population also seems to be united in resistance to the status quo, even if temporarily, and we could well witness a termination of the PNM's half century long hegemony, Panday (I'homme fatal) notwithstanding.