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Offline zuluwarrior

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Offline Socapro

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2014, 02:47:56 PM »
IT’S A TIE
If elections held today: PP 34% — PNM 32%
  :bs:
Story Created: Sep 20, 2014 at 10:10 PM ECT (T&T Express)


As the race to general elections 2015 heats up, the results of a new poll show that if elections were called today it would be almost a dead heat between the ruling People’s Partnership Government and the Opposition People’s National Movement (PNM).

The poll-commissioned exclusively by the Trinidad Express Newspapers and conducted by data analysis firm Solution by Simulation (SBS)—indicates that political preference in the country are divided in near-equal numbers even though Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar remains popular as a leader.

The run-off factor could make a difference, the poll shows.

When presented with the option to return to vote for the PNM or the Partnership, the generic ballot shifts from a statistical tie to a lead for the Partnership.

But the poll also shows that the PNM has an edge over the Partnership in the marginal seats.

Following is the analysis of the poll by SBS:


SUMMARY

While the countdown to the next general election has begun, the political preferences of the country remain deeply divided in near-equal numbers. A national poll of 678 adults who are eligible to vote revealed at least three main facts:

l Nationwide preference between the People’s National Movement (PNM) and the People’s Partnership (PP) remains statistically tied

l However, the PNM has more support in the key groups that decide elections: the marginal constituencies, voters of mixed ethnicity, and those who are unaligned or typically are not sufficiently motivated to vote for any party.

l The Prime Minister remains widely popular with a favourability rating of 46% and a job approval rating of 49%. The Opposition leader’s net favourability rating is +2%, returning to its 2012 level.


METHODOLOGY

Solution by Simulation interviewed 678 adults in Trinidad and Tobago via a combination of live telephone calls and interactive voice response (IVR) from September 15th to September 18th. Telephone calls were placed to listed TSTT and Flow landlines in which at least one household member is registered to vote. Results collected through each mode were practically identical. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/- 3.8% and about 6% for the named subsamples. The poll was commissioned as exclusive research for the Express.


WHICH PARTY/COALITION LEADS NATIONALLY? …IT’S A TIE

When voters are asked who they would support if a general election were held today (the so-called “generic ballot”), the result is a statistical tie. Of all respondents, 33.9% selected the People’s Partnership, and 31.9% selected the PNM. The Independent Liberal Party (ILP) and other parties combined for 8%, and 26% did not have a preference.

A statistical tie is a result that is so close that it is not possible to know which party is leading among the entire electorate of one million voters, from the survey of 678 voters. In this case the difference of 2% between the two major parties is well within the poll’s margin of error of 3.8%.


WHICH PARTY/COALITION IS WINNING?

…PROBABLY THE PNM


The national picture of a close election is more complicated when seat allocation is taken into consideration. While the PNM has a 17-point lead over the Partnership in its “safe” seats, and the Partnership is polling 23-points ahead over the PNM in its “safe” seats, the PNM enjoys a convincing 8-point edge over the PP in the marginal seats.

For the purpose of this analysis, the marginal constituencies are defined as the seats that changed hands between the 2007 and 2010 general elections; namely: Arima, Barataria/San Juan, D’Abadie/O’Meara, La Horquetta/Talparo, Lopinot/Bon Air West, San Fernando West, St Joseph, Tobago East, Tobago West, Toco/Sangre Grande and Tunapuna. The PNM’s lead of 8% in the marginal constituencies is above the margin of error for the sub-sample, meaning that we can say with statistical confidence that the PNM is leading in the composite of these seats.

Although the PNM enjoys this lead in these critical constituencies, the Partnership needs only to retain three of these 11 constituencies to maintain a 21-seat majority. Therefore, a precise estimate of the state of the election race requires further research into the marginal constituencies.


THE “RUN-OFF” FACTOR

…MAY MAKE THE DIFFERENCE


Currently, the ILP and other parties are polling at a combined total of 8% of all voters, which represents 10% of all voters who expressed some preference. If this level of support is maintained, several “run-off” elections may be triggered in the closest marginal constituencies assuming that the proposed constitutional amendments are passed and acceded to by the President.

When presented with the option to return to vote for the Partnership or for the PNM in a hypothetical run-off only in the respondents’ constituency, the generic ballot shifts from a statistical tie, to a clear 5-point lead for the People’s Partnership.

Currently, the PNM is the preferred second-choice of third-party supporters: about one in three would return to vote for the PNM on the second ballot, about one in six for the Partnership, and the rest would not return to vote. However, this effect is neutralised by the number of PNM supporters declaring that they would not return to vote a second time. While 84% of Partnership voters say that they would return to vote in a run-off election, only 71% of PNM voters would.

In all, 38% of voters say that they would not return to vote in a run-off election—the majority of these persons are those who have no preference on the first ballot.

The marginal constituencies show a similar shift towards the Partnership in a run-off election. Within the marginal constituencies, the PNM’s eight-point lead in the first ballot drops to a statistical dead heat in a run-off. Counter-intuitively, the marginal constituencies reported the highest share of persons who will not return to vote a second time, with 42% saying that they would stay at home.



PARTY LEADER FAVOURABILITY

Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar is polling strongly with a 46% favourability rating, while 38% rated her unfavourably. This gives her a +8% net favourabiliy rating. Opposition leader Dr Keith Rowley now has a 42% favourability rating, with 40% of persons rating him unfavourably; giving him a +2% net favourability rating.

However, the situation is reversed in the marginal constituencies, where the Opposition leader enjoys a +10% net favourability rating, and the Prime Minister a -2% net favourability rating.

This represents a decline from the +12% net favourability rating reported in the Express exclusive poll published on May 25-27, 2014. The Opposition Leader’s near-equal favourable/unfavourable numbers is a return to the situation found in the Express exclusive poll in May 2013.



PM APPROVAL RATING …STILL STRONG

The Prime Minister’s approval rating has remained steady from the May Express exclusive poll. Currently 49% approve of the job that she is doing as Prime Minister, with just 41% disapproval. Her approval rating is slightly higher than her favourability with the net approval and net favourability rating being equal.


HOW VOTERS EXPLAIN THEIR CHOICES

Most respondents explained their preferences in one of four ways: assessment of a party’s record of performance, consideration of ethics and corruption, implementation of social programmes, and loyalty or tradition, in that order.

Most persons who cited performance as the deciding factor prefer the Government, while those who are most concerned about corruption or establishing ethical and transparent government prefer the opposition. Some of those who were interested in performance said that they would support any party who performed for the benefit of the country.

A significant number of persons want to support a party that implements policies to help them or vulnerable sectors of society, such as employment opportunities, pensions, healthcare, etc.

The largest group however were voters who could not or chose not to explain their choice, which accounted for about half of all respondents.


ABOUT SOLUTION BY SIMULATION

Solution by Simulation (SBS) is a data analysis firm which uses computer modeling to probe and provide insight into human behavior. SBS provides market research and data analysis services for a number of commercial, academic, and civil society clients. SBS was founded by Nigel AR Henry, BS (Yale) MA (GWU), following Mr Henry’s service as the lead numerical analyst for the Southeast US for Obama for America campaign. It began in the United States, providing data analysis for political candidates; and debuted in Trinidad and Tobago producing the only published poll to forecast the 12-0 victory of the PNM in the 2013 THA Elections. Over five elections in 2013 and 2014, Solution by Simulation has proven to be consistently accurate in its pre-election polling.


Tomorrow: HOW POPULATION DYNAMICS AFFECT POLITICAL CHOICE

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Here is Socapro's reaction to this poll:  :bs:

I explain why in Reply #6 further down in this thread.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2014, 07:34:18 AM by Socapro »
De higher a monkey climbs is de less his ass is on de line, if he works for FIFA that is! ;-)

socafighter

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2014, 07:25:42 PM »


I said it on another thread and was deemed to be a yellow jersey ...

Rowley will not beat Kamla in any election....Watch the ride .

I got a lot of inside info , my recent visit to T&T.... ;D

Offline Sando prince

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2014, 09:17:48 PM »

^^ You nah at least a little embarrassed your party win elections by a wide margin of seats in 2010 BUT now in a dead heat fighting for re-election next year?

All the UNC die hards thought PNM was dead after 2010 results

socafighter

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2014, 10:15:31 PM »

^^ You nah at least a little embarrassed your party win elections by a wide margin of seats in 2010 BUT now in a dead heat fighting for re-election next year?

All the UNC die hards thought PNM was dead after 2010 results


Some how ..you don't understand what I have posted before ...

Its not my Party , I didn't vote...

The only results that matter will be election day next year....2015

What happened in 2010 will be irevalent...

As PNM you should understand that.... ;D


socafighter

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2014, 10:45:58 PM »
PP, PNM put SBS poll in perspective
 
Yvonne Baboolal
Published: Guardian
Monday, September 22, 2014

Dr Roodal Moonilal
The results of the Express-commissioned poll which shows the results of the 2015 general election would be close, with the People’s Partnership in the lead, has brought strong and diverse reactions from the two main political contenders and political analysts. The results have left the PNM gloating about its improved popularity and impending victory, and boasting it has not even played its best card yet, its manifesto and its 41 candidates.

On the other hand, UNC Deputy Political Leader Dr Roodal Moonilal said they were heartened by the results and are cautiously optimistic. Moonilal said the results disputed the PNM’s position over the last few years that it was growing in popularity and was a clear-cut winner for the 2015 general election.

Tobago-based political analyst, Dr Winford James, said all the PP needed for victory was its safe seats and three marginals and said the poll’s results confirmed suspicions that the Government altered the Constitution to win the election. Dr Indira Rampersad said the marginals of Tunapuna and San Fernando West would determine the results of the election. She said polls were snapshots in time and a lot could change by 2015.

The results of the poll done by Solution By Simulation (SBS) show voters divided in near equal numbers for the UNC and the PNM, with the People’s Partnership emerging with “34 per cent” and the PNM, “32 per cent”. The poll also says the Opposition has the edge in the marginals but runoffs (recently passed in Parliament) in these seats can lead to the PP winning the election. Moonilal said the PP was very much heartened by the findings of the SBS poll.

“We are cautiously optimistic. We take all polls seriously because they are a snapshot of the electorate at a given point in time. “If we had listened to the PNM over the last few years, you would think they were ascending and were the clear-cut winner for the 2015 general election. “But we have confidence in the people. The poll indicates we are ahead or in a dead heat in some of the marginals. “And we have not begun our 2015 election campaign as yet.”

Moonilal added that the poll showed Persad-Bissessar enjoying widespread support even when she had to make critical and, at times, controversial decisions on public policy. “But the most important decision Dr Rowley had to make over the last four years was whether to play golf in Trinidad or Dubai,” he quipped.

Al Rawi: UNC in a do or die situation
Al PNM PRO Faris Al Rawi said the poll was a snapshot in time and demonstrates the ascendancy of the PNM. “Importantly, it confirms the PNM’s lead in the marginals and, disaggregated, confirms an overall victory for the PNM in the general election.

Reminded of the newspaper’s headline which stated the election would be a tie, while at the same time showing the PP in the lead with 34 per cent and the PNM 32 per cent, Al Rawi said he was not concerned with the headline but the details as revealed in the content of the poll’s results. “Thirty-four and thirty-two are irrelevant. From what the details say, the PNM is ahead in the marginals by eight per cent.

“If the election was called now, the safe seats would be rendered irrelevant. And the PNM has not even played its best hand yet, its manifesto and 41 candidates.” Asked about rumours that Mikela Panday, daughter of former UNC leader and prime minister Basdeo Panday, was likely to contest a Princes Town seat as a PNM candidate, Al Rawi replied: “We will wait and see. Calls for screening have been made and there is massive interest in the PNM and you have to wait until you see who comes out.”

He said the poll further demonstrated that the popularity rating of Opposition leader Dr keith Rowley has improved from 17 per cent to 42 per cent while Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar’s has dropped from 75 per cent to 46 per cent. Al Rawi made no comment on the fact that Persad-Bissessar still remains the favoured leader. He said the PNM’s own internal polls, broader and deeper than the SBS poll, were even more positive.

Commenting on the SBS poll which shows that while the PNM had the edge in the marginals, runoff elections here can favour the PP, Al Rawi said, “The poll also demonstrates the Government’s shameless machinations in seeking to amend the Constitution to provide for the runoff phenomenon. “The UNC is in a do or die situation and now has to rely on trickery through constitution amendment for political survival.”


Offline Socapro

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2014, 07:13:10 AM »
Anyone who swallows that poll without considering that pollster Nigel Henry who runs Solution by Simulation (SBS) is a well known PP/UNC government supporter and would have done whatever it takes to ensure the results show the current PP/UNC government in favorable light, is even more naive and gullible than I would have previously imagined.

It is quite likely that most of the people who were polled were carefully selected and live in traditional UNC strongholds so I would take that poll with a large dose of epsom salts if I have any sense.

What this poll shows at any rate is exactly why the government have introduced the second elections run-off as they believe they will have an advantage over the PNM in a run-off elections as opposed to the clearly bogus argument they've been pushing about trying to increase democracy and choice when the reality is that the run-off elections does exactly the opposite.

This proves just how desperate this current divisive government is to continue having access to our treasury so they can continue to raid it for the benefit of themselves and their family and their business sponsors.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2014, 07:37:54 AM by Socapro »
De higher a monkey climbs is de less his ass is on de line, if he works for FIFA that is! ;-)

socafighter

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #7 on: September 22, 2014, 08:01:56 AM »


Come on Socapro ...

you showing your PNM underwear here by your comments... :rotfl:

Offline Bourbon

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #8 on: September 22, 2014, 08:12:45 AM »
Not totally true.

Solutions by Simulation has had a track record of conducting polls that match quite well the end result...which of course ended in him often being commissioned by the Government...(especially after he was virtually the only pollster that accurately predicted the Local Government results).

These results not telling me anything I didn't suspect already.

I already in another thread mentioned that the battle would be the marginals...because certain base seats not going to change how they vote.
In fact the run off proposal..doing exactly what it was designed to do would be a major factor in making this unpredictable and possibly vicious election.

The fact that unless a clear majority is attained that the previous government can stay in office until a recount is done and then the resulting run off makes it likely that there will be acrimony. And that adds a level of instability that could very well be tragic.


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Offline Socapro

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #9 on: September 22, 2014, 09:07:56 AM »
Not totally true.

Solutions by Simulation has had a track record of conducting polls that match quite well the end result...which of course ended in him often being commissioned by the Government...(especially after he was virtually the only pollster that accurately predicted the Local Government results).

These results not telling me anything I didn't suspect already.

I already in another thread mentioned that the battle would be the marginals...because certain base seats not going to change how they vote.
In fact the run off proposal..doing exactly what it was designed to do would be a major factor in making this unpredictable and possibly vicious election.

The fact that unless a clear majority is attained that the previous government can stay in office until a recount is done and then the resulting run off makes it likely that there will be acrimony. And that adds a level of instability that could very well be tragic.


That is why it is highly irresponsible of this government forcing thru an undemocratic elections run-off amendment that is highly likely to destabilize the country and leave us in the same state as Guyana.

But I believe the government is quite aware of what they are doing but are so power hungry to have extended access to the treasury that they simply don't care.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2014, 09:09:41 AM by Socapro »
De higher a monkey climbs is de less his ass is on de line, if he works for FIFA that is! ;-)

Offline Bourbon

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #10 on: September 22, 2014, 09:35:08 AM »
Not totally true.

Solutions by Simulation has had a track record of conducting polls that match quite well the end result...which of course ended in him often being commissioned by the Government...(especially after he was virtually the only pollster that accurately predicted the Local Government results).

These results not telling me anything I didn't suspect already.

I already in another thread mentioned that the battle would be the marginals...because certain base seats not going to change how they vote.
In fact the run off proposal..doing exactly what it was designed to do would be a major factor in making this unpredictable and possibly vicious election.

The fact that unless a clear majority is attained that the previous government can stay in office until a recount is done and then the resulting run off makes it likely that there will be acrimony. And that adds a level of instability that could very well be tragic.


That is why it is highly irresponsible of this government forcing thru an undemocratic elections run-off amendment that is highly likely to destabilize the country and leave us in the same state as Guyana.

But I believe the government is quite aware of what they are doing but are so power hungry to have extended access to the treasury that they simply don't care.


Well..the swing vote...or the disillusioned would be pivotal for every party in the coming elections. The run off amendment would have a telling effect..either in voter turnout/choice or in the allocation of votes and impact of the result..no two ways about it.
The greatest single cause of atheism in the world today are Christians who acknowledge Jesus ;with their lips and walk out the door and deny Him by their lifestyle. That is what an unbelieving world simply finds unbelievable.

Offline Controversial

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2014, 09:48:37 AM »
Not totally true.

Solutions by Simulation has had a track record of conducting polls that match quite well the end result...which of course ended in him often being commissioned by the Government...(especially after he was virtually the only pollster that accurately predicted the Local Government results).

These results not telling me anything I didn't suspect already.

I already in another thread mentioned that the battle would be the marginals...because certain base seats not going to change how they vote.
In fact the run off proposal..doing exactly what it was designed to do would be a major factor in making this unpredictable and possibly vicious election.

The fact that unless a clear majority is attained that the previous government can stay in office until a recount is done and then the resulting run off makes it likely that there will be acrimony. And that adds a level of instability that could very well be tragic.


That is why it is highly irresponsible of this government forcing thru an undemocratic elections run-off amendment that is highly likely to destabilize the country and leave us in the same state as Guyana.

But I believe the government is quite aware of what they are doing but are so power hungry to have extended access to the treasury that they simply don't care.


Well..the swing vote...or the disillusioned would be pivotal for every party in the coming elections. The run off amendment would have a telling effect..either in voter turnout/choice or in the allocation of votes and impact of the result..no two ways about it.

the result is already decided... it doesn't matter who gains power, it will be more of the same... once people divorce themselves from partisan politics it allows them to see the bigger picture a lot clearer ;)

Offline Socapro

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #12 on: September 22, 2014, 10:17:02 AM »
Not totally true.

Solutions by Simulation has had a track record of conducting polls that match quite well the end result...which of course ended in him often being commissioned by the Government...(especially after he was virtually the only pollster that accurately predicted the Local Government results).

These results not telling me anything I didn't suspect already.

I already in another thread mentioned that the battle would be the marginals...because certain base seats not going to change how they vote.
In fact the run off proposal..doing exactly what it was designed to do would be a major factor in making this unpredictable and possibly vicious election.

The fact that unless a clear majority is attained that the previous government can stay in office until a recount is done and then the resulting run off makes it likely that there will be acrimony. And that adds a level of instability that could very well be tragic.


That is why it is highly irresponsible of this government forcing thru an undemocratic elections run-off amendment that is highly likely to destabilize the country and leave us in the same state as Guyana.

But I believe the government is quite aware of what they are doing but are so power hungry to have extended access to the treasury that they simply don't care.


Well..the swing vote...or the disillusioned would be pivotal for every party in the coming elections. The run off amendment would have a telling effect..either in voter turnout/choice or in the allocation of votes and impact of the result..no two ways about it.

the result is already decided... it doesn't matter who gains power, it will be more of the same... once people divorce themselves from partisan politics it allows them to see the bigger picture a lot clearer ;)

I think the argument that voters in T&T only respond to partisan politics was blown out of the water in 2010 when many traditional PNM supporters voted for the PP government looking for a new corrupt free form of politics in running the country. But instead to their shock and dismay they got the most corrupt, divisive and incompetent government in T&T's political history who are so power hungry that they are prepared to change the elections rules in order to stay in power by any means necessary after they have clearly pillaged the country's treasury and have proven that they cannot be trusted in almost every government department.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2014, 10:22:09 AM by Socapro »
De higher a monkey climbs is de less his ass is on de line, if he works for FIFA that is! ;-)

Offline Sando prince

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #13 on: September 22, 2014, 01:46:39 PM »
Hope nobody get upset or bothered when any of our Caribbean neighbors talk about the racial divide in our country. The Observer had us on blast today  :o

http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Race-still-a-major-political-factor-in-Trinidad--Express-poll

« Last Edit: September 22, 2014, 02:07:22 PM by Sando prince »

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #14 on: September 22, 2014, 06:00:04 PM »
The poll didn't really surprise me.  I've felt all along that we are right back at square one....PNM die hards on one side..........UNC die hards on the other.........de middle back on de fence.  BUT the PNM would have the edge......dais why Kamsie and she croonies had to come up with SOMETHING to try and swing the result in their favour.  Dais how we get Run-off.

De part ah de poll dat stun me is dat Kams still popular!!!!   :o :o  How de hell is that possible??!!  People doh like Rowley THAT much??!!
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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #15 on: September 22, 2014, 06:06:54 PM »
The poll didn't really surprise me.  I've felt all along that we are right back at square one....PNM die hards on one side..........UNC die hards on the other.........de middle back on de fence.  BUT the PNM would have the edge......dais why Kamsie and she croonies had to come up with SOMETHING to try and swing the result in their favour.  Dais how we get Run-off.

De part ah de poll dat stun me is dat Kams still popular!!!!   :o :o  How de hell is that possible??!!  People doh like Rowley THAT much??!!

That part of the poll especially should be taken with a pinch of salt.
De higher a monkey climbs is de less his ass is on de line, if he works for FIFA that is! ;-)

Offline zuluwarrior

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #16 on: September 22, 2014, 06:59:20 PM »
People did not vote for the PP because they like Kams they voted for the PP because Manning with his hard head did not want to step down . 
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good things happening to good people: a good thing
good things happening to bad people: a bad thing
bad things happening to good people: a bad thing
bad things happening to bad people: a good thing

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #17 on: September 22, 2014, 08:27:16 PM »
People did not vote for the PP because they like Kams they voted for the PP because Manning with his hard head did not want to step down . 

They voted for the PP because Manning was foolish enough to call an early elections and underestimated the power of the PP propaganda machine that did its best to destroy his character in the minds of the public.

Manning was a little arrogant but was a good PM for T&T unlike Kamla and her cabal that have been showing their true colours for the past 4 years non stop.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2014, 09:04:26 PM by Socapro »
De higher a monkey climbs is de less his ass is on de line, if he works for FIFA that is! ;-)

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #18 on: September 22, 2014, 08:30:57 PM »
Yes sir by farrrrr the man was a good leader .
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Offline weary1969

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #19 on: September 22, 2014, 08:58:42 PM »
Yes sir by farrrrr the man was a good leader .

Who my man Manning is a good leader say it eh so.
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Offline Sando prince

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #20 on: September 22, 2014, 10:13:47 PM »
The poll didn't really surprise me.  I've felt all along that we are right back at square one....PNM die hards on one side..........UNC die hards on the other.........de middle back on de fence.  BUT the PNM would have the edge......dais why Kamsie and she croonies had to come up with SOMETHING to try and swing the result in their favour.  Dais how we get Run-off.

De part ah de poll dat stun me is dat Kams still popular!!!!   :o :o  How de hell is that possible??!!  People doh like Rowley THAT much??!!

Good point Brownsugar but keep in mind this same poll says Rowley is more popular than Kamla in the marginal seats and for me this is more important at the moment.

Offline Bourbon

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #21 on: September 23, 2014, 05:53:14 AM »
The poll didn't really surprise me.  I've felt all along that we are right back at square one....PNM die hards on one side..........UNC die hards on the other.........de middle back on de fence.  BUT the PNM would have the edge......dais why Kamsie and she croonies had to come up with SOMETHING to try and swing the result in their favour.  Dais how we get Run-off.

De part ah de poll dat stun me is dat Kams still popular!!!!   :o :o  How de hell is that possible??!!  People doh like Rowley THAT much??!!

Apparently she is....cause of her image. One of the major aspects of the UNC approach is to demonise Rowley at every chance they have.

Allyuh forget this or wha:

http://www.trinidadexpress.com/news/UNC-e-mail-urges-full-scale--attack-to-bring-down-Dr-Rowley-262194441.html

Quote
Always refer to him as Rowley, not Dr Keith Rowley.
This is one of the recommendations contained in an e-mail sent by United National Congress (UNC) strategist Rodney Charles to a number of UNC operatives, in which a “full-scale attack” on People’s National Movement (PNM) leader Keith Rowley from May 19, “the morning after his expected landslide victory” in the PNM internal elections, was to be launched.


(...)

The e-mail, a copy of which was provided to the Express, was dated May 16, 2014.
“We absolutely need to bring down his polling ratings. We are therefore asking you (and all our supporters), in whatever way you can, to be part of that attack,” the e-mail stated.

“Try also to have short sound bites that speak to his negatives. His name should be side by side with the negative, eg Rowley is unfit to lead. He is too arrogant. He does not entertain views different from his.”

Among the persons to whom the e-mail was addressed were ministers Suruj Rambachan and Vasant Bharath, UNC general secretary and adviser in the Office of the Prime Minister Dave Tancoo, other advisers in the Prime Minister’s office, including Shem Baldeosingh, Housing Development Corporation (HDC) chairman Rabindra Moonan and former T&T high commissioner to Canada Philip Buxo.
Robinson-Regis pointed out that Express columnist Capil Bissoon was one of the persons to whom the e-mail was sent.

“We understand he is a member of the strategy committee of the UNC, but the Express presents him as an independent columnist. And every week without fail, he writes demonising our political leader. I understand he lives in Canada and is employed at the Trinidad and Tobago High Commission there,” said Robinson-Regis, a former High Commissioner to Canada.
She said the e-mail was also sent to Jai Parasram, a Sunday Guardian columnist.


Probably should have cross posted with the Propaganda thread. Sat Maharaj on his station often refers to Rowley as "tar baby". So yeah...you seeing the tactic. Not to mention this proposed commission of inquiry.
The greatest single cause of atheism in the world today are Christians who acknowledge Jesus ;with their lips and walk out the door and deny Him by their lifestyle. That is what an unbelieving world simply finds unbelievable.

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #22 on: September 23, 2014, 07:02:01 AM »
Not bad advice. But, it's advice that opens the door for reciprocal treatment. However, probably best if someone other than the target bears the hatchet. In politics, an attacked candidate is sometimes better advised to be selective in responding negatively. Frequency is not necessarily a winner.

Assertion: The PM's popularity is in part based on her asserted lack of knowledge on vexing matters. True or false?
Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, the outgoing president of Croatia, said corruption was so embedded in her country that at school children who cheated in tests were celebrated as “heroes”. A recent Eurobarometer survey found that a majority of Croatians felt affected by corruption.

Sound familiar, T&T?

Offline Bourbon

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #23 on: September 23, 2014, 08:29:18 AM »
Not bad advice. But, it's advice that opens the door for reciprocal treatment. However, probably best if someone other than the target bears the hatchet. In politics, an attacked candidate is sometimes better advised to be selective in responding negatively. Frequency is not necessarily a winner.

Assertion: The PM's popularity is in part based on her asserted lack of knowledge on vexing matters. True or false?


You saying she popular cause she clueless? Ok...cool.
The greatest single cause of atheism in the world today are Christians who acknowledge Jesus ;with their lips and walk out the door and deny Him by their lifestyle. That is what an unbelieving world simply finds unbelievable.

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #24 on: September 23, 2014, 09:47:12 AM »
Not bad advice. But, it's advice that opens the door for reciprocal treatment. However, probably best if someone other than the target bears the hatchet. In politics, an attacked candidate is sometimes better advised to be selective in responding negatively. Frequency is not necessarily a winner.

Assertion: The PM's popularity is in part based on her asserted lack of knowledge on vexing matters. True or false?


You saying she popular cause she clueless? Ok...cool.

In a word ... "no".
Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, the outgoing president of Croatia, said corruption was so embedded in her country that at school children who cheated in tests were celebrated as “heroes”. A recent Eurobarometer survey found that a majority of Croatians felt affected by corruption.

Sound familiar, T&T?

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #25 on: September 23, 2014, 10:02:28 AM »
Not bad advice. But, it's advice that opens the door for reciprocal treatment. However, probably best if someone other than the target bears the hatchet. In politics, an attacked candidate is sometimes better advised to be selective in responding negatively. Frequency is not necessarily a winner.

Assertion: The PM's popularity is in part based on her asserted lack of knowledge on vexing matters. True or false?


You saying she popular cause she clueless? Ok...cool.

In a word ... "no".

So why is she popular then? Is it because she is a good dresser and never refuses a drink with her fiends?
De higher a monkey climbs is de less his ass is on de line, if he works for FIFA that is! ;-)

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #26 on: September 23, 2014, 10:12:26 AM »
Not bad advice. But, it's advice that opens the door for reciprocal treatment. However, probably best if someone other than the target bears the hatchet. In politics, an attacked candidate is sometimes better advised to be selective in responding negatively. Frequency is not necessarily a winner.

Assertion: The PM's popularity is in part based on her asserted lack of knowledge on vexing matters. True or false?


You saying she popular cause she clueless? Ok...cool.

In a word ... "no".

So why is she popular then? Is it because she is a good dresser and never refuses a drink with her fiends?

Before this gets out of control, let me state this ...

1. There's a gap between the assertion posted and "clueless". They are not the same thing. Bourbon's comment strikes me as either disingenuous or reflexively partisan.

2. I am yet to express an opinion on her "popularity".
Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, the outgoing president of Croatia, said corruption was so embedded in her country that at school children who cheated in tests were celebrated as “heroes”. A recent Eurobarometer survey found that a majority of Croatians felt affected by corruption.

Sound familiar, T&T?

Offline Jumbie

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #27 on: September 23, 2014, 10:26:57 AM »
Those who know the politics behind the men. With Dr Rowely having public indifference with Mr Manning, could this have contributed to the hasty election and massacre of the PNM? I mean.. so if the man who wants your job is making a nuisance of himself (right or wrong), would you then call an election to stamp your approval by the people!

I also echo an appreciation for the job Mr Manning was doing to improve the security and general welfare of the people of Trinidad and Tobago. The lil power caused his downfall.


The race for the next prime minister is not as clear as many here would think.

Offline Bourbon

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #28 on: September 23, 2014, 11:51:45 AM »
Not bad advice. But, it's advice that opens the door for reciprocal treatment. However, probably best if someone other than the target bears the hatchet. In politics, an attacked candidate is sometimes better advised to be selective in responding negatively. Frequency is not necessarily a winner.

Assertion: The PM's popularity is in part based on her asserted lack of knowledge on vexing matters. True or false?


You saying she popular cause she clueless? Ok...cool.

In a word ... "no".

So why is she popular then? Is it because she is a good dresser and never refuses a drink with her fiends?

Before this gets out of control, let me state this ...

1. There's a gap between the assertion posted and "clueless". They are not the same thing. Bourbon's comment strikes me as either disingenuous or reflexively partisan.

2. I am yet to express an opinion on her "popularity".

Yeah it was intended to come across as disingenuous. I mean with a statement like:

"The PM's popularity is in part based on her asserted lack of knowledge on vexing matters."

How could one have a leader that confidently could say she is ignorant about matters that trouble either her government or the country at large?

If you presenting that as an argument as to the prime minister being popular then what else could be the implication? If she could feign ignorance or wash her hands of it and claim she not aware...and that contributes to her popularity well then....what can I say. If that is makes her more attractive as a leader than Rowley..then Rowley has no chance.
The greatest single cause of atheism in the world today are Christians who acknowledge Jesus ;with their lips and walk out the door and deny Him by their lifestyle. That is what an unbelieving world simply finds unbelievable.

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Re: Poll-Run-off-favours-Government
« Reply #29 on: September 23, 2014, 01:36:40 PM »
Not bad advice. But, it's advice that opens the door for reciprocal treatment. However, probably best if someone other than the target bears the hatchet. In politics, an attacked candidate is sometimes better advised to be selective in responding negatively. Frequency is not necessarily a winner.

Assertion: The PM's popularity is in part based on her asserted lack of knowledge on vexing matters. True or false?


You saying she popular cause she clueless? Ok...cool.

In a word ... "no".

So why is she popular then? Is it because she is a good dresser and never refuses a drink with her fiends?

Before this gets out of control, let me state this ...

1. There's a gap between the assertion posted and "clueless". They are not the same thing. Bourbon's comment strikes me as either disingenuous or reflexively partisan.

2. I am yet to express an opinion on her "popularity".

Yeah it was intended to come across as disingenuous. I mean with a statement like:

"The PM's popularity is in part based on her asserted lack of knowledge on vexing matters."

How could one have a leader that confidently could say she is ignorant about matters that trouble either her government or the country at large?

If you presenting that as an argument as to the prime minister being popular then what else could be the implication? If she could feign ignorance or wash her hands of it and claim she not aware...and that contributes to her popularity well then....what can I say. If that is makes her more attractive as a leader than Rowley..then Rowley has no chance.
:thumbsup:
De higher a monkey climbs is de less his ass is on de line, if he works for FIFA that is! ;-)