Tick-tock, T&T, our time has come
T&T Express
The global paradigm of political, economic and financial intelligence relative to forecasting theory is anything but predictable because the world is in a spin of paradigm shifts, away from historical trends (predictive outcomes based on historical norms).
The conventional behaviour of markets was more often than not predictable, given a conventional data set of intelligence correlated with historical data, resultant patterns and trends. Evidently, today's world spins an unconventional environment of uncertainty, shifted to an “Arab Spring” of surprises. The era of a socio-politico-economic “spring” has arrived, rendering norms as we know it out of control.
I call this phenomenon “The Global Paradigm Shift Spring”, which is a manifestation of a work-in-progress new world order. Factors of change dynamics are constituted in Al Qaeda, the Arab Spring, ISIS, Putin's Russia, the rising Chinese empire, American politics—the Trump Spring, the Syrian debacle, the Mideast crisis, oil/energy power shifts, the World Bank financial levers, the speculative financial power brokers, et al.
Examples of current paradigm shifts in motion:
Historically, oil prices increase with the associated risks of Mideast unrest. However, the increasing Saudi Arabian and Iranian tensions, the horrific war in Syria and the ISIS threat consequently has had the opposite effect.
In fact, the Saudis' have reduced their oil prices by 60 cents a barrel to Iranian-targeted European markets and 20 cents to Russian-targeted Asian markets to squeeze the economic life out of their adversaries.
The threat of a “Saudi Spring” paradigm shift is real and entirely probable. Hence, the Saudi (Sunni) economic war to dethrone (Shiite) Iran.
The US fracking (oil) technology and the new LNG (liquefied natural gas) plants coming on stream, coupled with the repeal of a congressional law prohibiting American companies from exporting oil and gas is a game-changing paradigm shift, indeed, the rise of a new energy world order.
The World Bank/International Monetary Fund (IMF)—an American financial leverage institution—recently approved the Chinese yuan as a reserve currency, which sets the foundation for China's control of influence in the global financial/currency markets. A financial world order shift in waiting.
Historically, low energy prices benefits the greater world economy by way of savings on energy costs, which filters into lower manufacturing, power and transportation expenses. However, these benefits have yet to kick in due to energy-import countries paying down on their (high) debt. Coupled with lower economic demand and the commodity prices slump, the paradigm shift is in an unpredictable spin.
In 2016, many (First World) countries will be in a position to make the inevitable adjustments in preparation for the effects of the paradigm shifts. However, emerging markets and Third World nations will be caught in the new world order spin and will take a hard socioeconomic hit.
Trinidad and Tobago, like many energy-exporting countries, has built up a financial hedge (for example, Heritage and Stabilisation Fund and foreign reserves) that will provide a cushion for the macroeconomic recessionary blow in 2016, but the microeconomic impact will still be felt. In 2017, however, a global perfect storm, a tsunami meltdown, awaits nations ill-prepared for it.
T&T's time bomb of irresponsible government, wasteful and corrupt political economics, irrational national budgets and private enterprise excessive profiteering is ticking away at the tsunami countdown. Our nation is blessed with an educated citizenry; a healthy asset infrastructure; reasonably good, useful utilities; and relatively sound financials. What we need and must demand to survive the perfect storm on the horizon is good governance, honest Government, fair business practices and a disciplined society to increase production and consume in moderation.
T&T, our time has come; the clock is ticking. “Be the change that you wish to see in the world.” —Mahatma Gandhi
Brian Stone
via e-mail
