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Offline Tallman

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CONCACAF Ranking Thread
« on: March 02, 2018, 11:05:02 AM »
CONCACAF Launches New Ranking Index
CONCACAF.com


CONCACAF has launched a new ranking index that will serve as a constantly up-to-date ranking system for national teams in North and Central America and the Caribbean, as they compete in the on-going Nations League, the CONCACAF Gold Cup, and other international competitions.

The new ranking tool will update with each match result, and will play a key role in determining qualification for important regional and international championships going forward.

The ranking establishes a classification that orders COCNACAFís national teams from 1-41. Additionally, the CONCACAF Ranking Index makes it possible to calculate the probabilities of different match results (a win, a draw, or a loss) for all matches in the near future.

Based on the results of all official and friendly matches played by national teams from each of the Confederationís Member Associations, the statistics-based algorithm takes into consideration historical data from 1990 to present day. To best reflect the current competitive strength of each side, matches played throughout the last four-year cycle (2014-18) carry more weight than those that span further back in the calendar.

The rankings outcome of each match depends on three main factors:
  • The playing strength of the teams competing,
  • The home-field advantage,
  • The actual match performance or final result of the match.

The CONCACAF Ranking Index measures teams on final results and strength of their opponent.  Official matches have more weight than friendlies.  Matches played in final stages of competitions such as the FIFA World Cup, the Gold Cup or Nations League also have a greater weight.

Based on the initial results of this system, which are now public, the draw for the CONCACAF Nations League QualifiersĖ to be contested during four official FIFA match windows in September, October and November 2018 and March 2019 Ė will be executed.

The first edition of the CONCACAF Ranking Index reveals that the 34 national teams set to participate in CONCACAF Nations League Qualifying draw on March 7, are ranked as follows:

Ranking Procedure
The CONCACAF National Team Ranking is a ranking of all 41 Member Associations of CONCACAF. It is based on historical and actual results in all competitive and friendly matches. The ranking was developed by CONCACAF in close cooperation with Hypercube, a company also responsible for important football ratings Euro Club Index and UEFA National Team Coefficient.

The ranking of a team creates an expectation of its match results. If a team performs better than expected it will gain points, if a team performs worse than expected it will lose points.

A teamís total number of points at any given date is determined by adding:
  • The start ranking of July 1, 1990
  • All points gained and lost in matches played since then
The system is proven to be stable, as every new ranking creates a reliable expectation for the next match, and recent results have a much higher impact on the ranking than results from long ago.

Calculation of points for a single match

The number of points (P) gained or lost in a match depends on the following factors:
  • The actual result of the game (R)
  • The expected result of the game (E)
  • The importance of the match (K)
The number of points added to the ranking is calculated with the following formula:

P = K * (R Ė E)

Thus a team will gain points if the result is better than expected and lose points if the result is worse than expected. The points gained by a team in a match are equal to the points lost by its opponent (zero-sum system).

Criteria for the calculation:

R: Match Result

This has the value of 1 for a win, 0 for a draw and -1 for a loss.

E: Expected Result

The odds of a match are based on the ranking difference between the two teams and the home advantage. These odds are calculated with a formula or looked up in a table. For opponents outside of CONCACAF an assigned ranking is used.

P(win) is the probability of a win and P(loss) is the probability of a loss, both are numbers between 0 and 1. Now E = P(win) Ė P(loss) is a number between -1 and +1. If the match is completely balanced, the expected result is 0. The bigger the surprise, the more points are transferred.

K: Match Importance
  • Friendly matches: 17.5
  • Official CONCACAF and CONCACAF World Cup qualifying matches: 35
  • FIFA World Cup matches: 50
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Offline dcs

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Re: CONCACAF Ranking Thread
« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2018, 02:38:19 PM »
How is this different from the FIFA rankings?
I.e. Is this always going to be an exact match for CONCACAF countries order of rank within FIFA rankings?

Formulas look similar and they could just be using the same database as FIFA and claiming this is something new.

Would be weird if Mexico is #1 here but then the USA is higher than them on the FIFA rankings.  Unless they want more rum shop talk  :D

Offline truehaitian

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Re: CONCACAF Ranking Thread
« Reply #2 on: March 02, 2018, 03:09:39 PM »
Why Guatemala is rated above T & T , Salvador ,  Nicaragua, Martinique, French Guiana , Haiti and others when they haven't play a single game in almost 3 years?
« Last Edit: March 02, 2018, 03:11:11 PM by truehaitian »

Offline Tallman

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Re: CONCACAF Ranking Thread
« Reply #3 on: March 02, 2018, 04:03:36 PM »
How is this different from the FIFA rankings?

Well for one, the non-FIFA countries are included.
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Offline FF

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Re: CONCACAF Ranking Thread
« Reply #4 on: March 02, 2018, 08:17:10 PM »
Well we not in the top 7 so a next ting to fail to qualify for
THE BEATINGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MORALE IMPROVES

Offline FF

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Re: CONCACAF Ranking Thread
« Reply #5 on: March 06, 2018, 12:31:17 PM »
Look like we seeded and don't have to qualify based on being in the Hex
THE BEATINGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MORALE IMPROVES

Offline dcs

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Re: CONCACAF Ranking Thread
« Reply #6 on: March 06, 2018, 02:26:40 PM »

So the FIFA rankings look like they published mid-month and this one from CONCACAF is start of the month.

Definitely not looking like the teams in the same relative order.

We above Haiti, Canada and El Salvador in the Feb 15th FIFA rankings but below them in the March 1st CONCACAF rankings....but still they have to go through qualifying and we get a bly  ;D

One would hope the newer ranking system would be closer to the "truth".  Let's see where the next FIFA rankings put us and more importantly who our opponents are for friendlies in preparation for the League next year.

Offline FF

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Re: CONCACAF Ranking Thread
« Reply #7 on: March 07, 2018, 12:26:08 PM »
We are also now automatic qualifiers for the 2019 Gold Cup.

"The top 10 finishers in Nations League qualifying will earn a place in next year's Gold Cup, which was recently expanded from 12 teams to 16 teams. There they will be grouped with the aforementioned six 2018 Hexagonal participants, who have also already booked spots in the Gold Cup."

THE BEATINGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MORALE IMPROVES

Offline gawd on pitch

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Re: CONCACAF Ranking Thread
« Reply #8 on: March 07, 2018, 02:23:19 PM »
We are also now automatic qualifiers for the 2019 Gold Cup.

"The top 10 finishers in Nations League qualifying will earn a place in next year's Gold Cup, which was recently expanded from 12 teams to 16 teams. There they will be grouped with the aforementioned six 2018 Hexagonal participants, who have also already booked spots in the Gold Cup."



I just mentioned that in another thread. Automatic qualification is a huge relief. . DJW has to go before 2019.

Offline dcs

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Re: CONCACAF Ranking Thread
« Reply #9 on: March 08, 2018, 07:16:05 AM »
Well look ting.
We qualify for Gold Cup based on results with Stephen Hart.
I hope Tallest could tell the man thanks and donít get caught up in Adminís politics.

Offline asylumseeker

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Re: CONCACAF Ranking Thread
« Reply #10 on: March 08, 2018, 09:37:07 AM »
Well look ting.
We qualify for Gold Cup based on results with Stephen Hart.
I hope Tallest could tell the man thanks and donít get caught up in Adminís politics.

Good point.
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Offline gawd on pitch

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Re: CONCACAF Ranking Thread
« Reply #11 on: March 08, 2018, 11:50:12 AM »
And yuh know damn well that we don't deserve the automatic qualification to 2019 Gold cup. As much as this go piss off some of allyuh, Jamaica or Curacao deserve we spot. Time to find a way to get rid of DJW and have Hart return to have some involvement. Either as coach or manager. Him and Tallest together will get it done. Truss meh

Offline asylumseeker

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Re: CONCACAF Ranking Thread
« Reply #12 on: March 08, 2018, 12:47:47 PM »
And yuh know damn well that we don't deserve the automatic qualification to 2019 Gold cup. As much as this go piss off some of allyuh, Jamaica or Curacao deserve we spot. Time to find a way to get rid of DJW and have Hart return to have some involvement. Either as coach or manager. Him and Tallest together will get it done. Truss meh

That was sort ah my gut reaction too, but making it to the Hex should count for something ... and now, according to Montagliani it does. Lehwe see.

Jamaica as Gold Cup runners-up should come through qualifying with relative ease. At the end of the day, the Hex is the Hex and dey didn't make it. Curacao plays Bolivia in a lil bit. Talk to me after that match. :P Bolivia named its squad today. My reaction was ... we should be playing Bolivia, not Curacao.
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Offline gawd on pitch

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Re: CONCACAF Ranking Thread
« Reply #13 on: March 08, 2018, 02:02:22 PM »
And yuh know damn well that we don't deserve the automatic qualification to 2019 Gold cup. As much as this go piss off some of allyuh, Jamaica or Curacao deserve we spot. Time to find a way to get rid of DJW and have Hart return to have some involvement. Either as coach or manager. Him and Tallest together will get it done. Truss meh

That was sort ah my gut reaction too, but making it to the Hex should count for something ... and now, according to Montagliani it does. Lehwe see.

Jamaica as Gold Cup runners-up should come through qualifying with relative ease. At the end of the day, the Hex is the Hex and dey didn't make it. Curacao plays Bolivia in a lil bit. Talk to me after that match. :P Bolivia named its squad today. My reaction was ... we should be playing Bolivia, not Curacao.

You're right. When was the last game against non-concacaf opposition? We staying in the realms of the Guyana, Grenada, and Guadeloupe friendlies. It's like the administration does not see past them teams. I hope we get some friendlies when the other teams are qualifying for the cnl.

 

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