Which Confederation Has Too Many World Cup Spots? An In-Depth Study
By Kaveh Mahjoob (goal.com)
The argument of how many teams each confederation should be allocated in the World Cup is as old as the tournament itself. It is widely accepted that countries from Europe and South America have better football leagues and football teams. This premise is also reflected in the number of representatives these confederations have in different world cups.
On the other hand, whenever a good European team misses out on the global event, talk invariably turns how Asia, Africa and CONCACAF have too many spots. This discussion prompted a study on how countries of different confederations have performed over the last eight World Cups.
First however, let us remind ourselves that the World Cup is a tournament where best of each continent gets together and compete. The premise of a global showpiece is not to invite the top 32 football countries of the world. It is however to bring a broad representation of all corners of the globe for the most significant sports tournament in the world.
For this article, I studied the performance of all participants from 1974 through 2002. The objective was to determine if as the number of tournament slots increased for Asia/Oceania, Africa and CONCACAF, their results suffered in the tournament. To set the stage, a few notes should be reviewed.
- Over the 28 years and eight world cups studied, 192 slots were at stake. Europe was allocated 55% allocations of those, South America 17%, Africa 11%, Asia/Oceania 9% and CONCACAF 8%.
- In two of these world cups, 16 nations competed while in four, twenty four nations entered and the last two tournaments have seen 32 nations compete.
- Beginning with the 1994 world cup, the match winners received 3 points. Until then, winners were only awarded 2 points. For the sake of consistency, all winners in this study have been assumed awarded 3 points.
In order to examine each confederation’s performances, the average number of points each confederation member has earned for a given world cup is used as a key measurement. This measurement allows us to observe confederations progress over time independent of how many members were qualified. Table I below summarizes research done in this area:
Table I: Average Points Per Confederation Per Team
World Cup Europe South America CONCACAF Asia/Oceania Africa
1974 9.3 4.8 0.0 1.0 0.0
1978 6.6 11.7 0.0 1.0 4.0
1982 7.8 5.8 1.0 0.0 7.0
1986 6.1 9.8 5.5 0.5 3.0
1990 7.2 6.5 3.0 0.0 5.5
1994 7.2 6.8 4.5 4.0 2.3
1998 7.5 6.3 2.7 1.3 3.4
2002 5.9 6.0 6.0 4.5 3.6
NOTE –For the 1974 world cup tournament, 9 European countries participated and earned a total of 84 points. 9.3 points earned were the average of each European nation. That translates to just above 3 victories per European team in1974.
Europe
Back in 1974, nine teams from Europe participated in the world cup. Most of these teams were successful and in fact six of these teams made it to the quarterfinals. Over the last eight world cups, 1974 was the zenith of the performance of Europeans nations.
In the 2002 world cup, Europe had 15 nations in the tournament yet only nine of them made it to the second which represented 56% of teams in this round.
The comparison above shows that although Europe still has the most successful football nations, her once overall dominance has been decreased and challenged over time. Still, we all fully expect that as usual, only Brazil and Argentina would challenge the European countries for the world cup title.
The other interesting point is that European nations produce higher averages per nation when the games are hosted in Europe. The three highest averages European nations achieved in the study were in 1974, 1982 and 1998 when the games were held in European countries of West Germany, Spain and France. Coincidently, the world champs were also European in those years (West Germany, Italy and France).
South America
In the last four world cups, South American teams have managed a consistent 6 to 7 points per participant.
Four of the eight world cups studied were won by Brazil and Argentina. These two countries have carried the other South Americans by earning victories and points. Yet, Uruguay, Columbia and Paraguay have exhibited sparks in different world cups.
While no European nation has ever won a world cup outside of that green continent, Brazil has been successful in Europe (1958 – Sweden), North America (1970 – Mexico and 1994 – USA) and Asia (2002 – Japan/Korea). Argentina also was victorious in North America (1986 – Mexico).
CONCACAF
Since 1974, CONCACAF has had the biggest improvement as a confederation. Mexico and USA carry the points for CONCACAF and both advanced to the second round in 2002. Unfortunately, the two countries then faced each other. Additionally, CONCACAF countries made their best showing of the world cups studied in 2002 with the average of 6 points per team.
This time around, CONCACAF has three spots in the FIFA top 32 teams and four representatives in the world cup. Aside from USA and Mexico, Costa Rica is also highly ranked and Trinidad and Tobago would love to become the Senegal of 2006. Every world cup needs a Cinderella. Will Trinidad and Tobago be the one?
Asia / Oceania
1966 was unforgettable for Asia when North Korea surprised the world and advanced to the quarterfinals. It took another 28 years until 1994 before another Asian team advanced from the group stage.
Asian / Oceania representatives had their best showing ever in the 2002 world cups when homemade cooking helped both Japan and Korea to advance. Korea managed to make it all the way to the semifinals and finished fourth.
This time around, Asia and Oceania have five representatives in the world cup. Four of these nations are in the FIFA top 32 teams and Australia, the fifth one, managed a surprising victory over Uruguay to make it to Germany.
A lot more is expected from these five countries in 2006 and each has employed a foreign head coach to help them perform well. Two Dutch head coaches are in Korea and Australia, a Brazilian in Japan, an Argentinean in Saudi Arabia and a Croatian in Iran.
Africa
In the 1978 world cup, the tide began to turn for African nations. That year, Tunisia defeated Mexico and tied Germany and served a notice to the world that African countries would not be the easy opponents on the field.
As Table I indicates, the African confederation has hovered above three points per team for most of the last three decades. The surprise finding of this analysis is that African countries had the lowest points per team among all confederations in 2002.
For fans of African football, the absence of Cameroon, Morocco, Nigeria, Senegal and South Africa in the 2006 world cup is a major surprise and disappointment. In fact, only one of the four African nations in the FIFA top 32 countries made it to the big dance and that was Tunisia which also happens to be the lone survivor of the 2002 African representatives. On the other hand, the arrival of four newcomers, Angola, Ghana, Ivory Coast and Togo should add to the excitement.
Table II below takes a different look at how each confederation performed.
Table II: Average Points Per Confederation Per Team Per Game
World Cup Europe South America CONCACAF Asia/Oceania Africa
1974 1.8 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.0
1978 1.4 1.8 0.0 0.3 1.3
1982 1.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 1.3
1986 1.3 2.0 1.4 0.2 0.9
1990 1.6 1.4 0.8 0.0 1.4
1994 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.1 0.7
1998 1.7 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.9
2002 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.9
NOTE: Table II shows the average points per game each nation of each confederation earned for different world cups. Note that the range of points for this table would be between 0 (losing every match) to 3 (winning every match).
Europe
European countries have consistently performed well in the world cups. As noted before, they perform better when the games are held in Europe. This time around, with the games in Germany and 14 great representatives, we should expect an exciting display of eloquence and powerful football by Europeans. The race to the finish line will be on for several of these countries.
South America
Of the five confederations in eight world cups reviewed, only once a continent managed a 2.0 average points per game per nation. That was done in 1986. Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay teamed up to achieve this average with a collective record of 11 wins, 6 draws and only 3 defeats.
In 2002, once again the South American countries brought their average points per game up to 1.8 and recorded their second best average among the eight world cups studied.
It is uncommon to see a single country defeat both Argentina and Brazil in a same tournament. During the 2006 qualifying matches, Ecuador made this rare achievement and also qualified for Germany. Eyes will be on this lesser known football power to see how they will fare in 2006.
CONCACAF
CONCACAF countries best showing ever took place in 2002 and in a surprising development; this confederation’s 1.5 points per match tied that of members of the European confederation.
CONCACAF will take the positive results of 2002 plus the current top 10 rankings of Mexico and USA as well as Costa Rica’s top 20 ranking into Germany. There is also a good possibility that Mexico would end up as one of the top seeds for the December 9th draw.
Asia / Oceania
Interestingly, since the number of teams allocated for Asia/Oceania confederations have increased, so have the average number of points per game by their representatives. The best showing of the Asian confederation was in 1994 with 1.1 points per game, that was also matched in 2002. In 2002, this average was achieved due to the amazing runs of Japan and South Korea despite the poor showings of the other two Asian representatives.
The general feeling among football observers is that of the 55 Asia and Oceania FIFA members, five of them play at the world cup level. This year, all five have made it to the world cup. China, Bahrain and Uzbekistan may beg to differ however.
Conclusion
The argument that CONACAF, Africa and Asia / Oceania have too many slots in the world cup misses several key points. These are:
- The World Cup is supposed to be THE tournament where the entire world’s best gather and compete. It is not intended to represent the top 32 nations of the world but rather a broad representation of all continents.
- In every World Cup, we witness how one or two supposed minnows knock out more established nations. That is a great attraction of the world cup when no team, except Brazil, should ever feel secure to advance from the group stage.
Football is truly the most beautiful and exciting sport in the world. It is no longer played on just two continents, every community and country takes participation very seriously. FIFA’s goal has been to enable and encourage the participations of all nations. It is true that business gains are made for all parties involved when the game is played, watched and enjoyed throughout the world. That also is a part of football’s appeal.
As the statistics of Tables I and II in this analysis show, Africa, CONCACAF and Asia / Oceania have all progressed and earned more points over time despite the increase in the number of their allocated slots. Next time, if a famous football nation doesn’t make it to the world cup, let’s not start blaming these three confederations.
The beautiful and colorful game needs representation from all races and corners of the world. That is what makes the World Cup the most entertaining, exciting and anticipated event every four years.
