foxsports.comAssociated Press WC: Seedings always the key to the draw
The euphoria felt by the last few teams to qualify for the World Cup, such as Trinidad and Tobago, Australia and Angola, is tempered by the reality of a draw that could pit them in the first round against Brazil, Germany or Argentina.
QUALIFIED TEAMS
Europe (UEFA)
Croatia Czech Rep.
England France
Germany Italy
Netherlands Poland
Portugal Serbia & Mont.
Spain Sweden
Switzerland Ukraine
N. America (CONCACAF)
Costa Rica Mexico
Trinidad & Tob. USA
S. America (CONMEBOL)
Argentina Brazil
Ecuador Paraguay
Asia (AFC)
Iran Japan
Saudi Arabia South Korea
Africa (CAF)
Angola Ivory Coast
Ghana Togo
Tunisia
Oceania (OFC)
Australia
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The resignation of soccer's lesser lights is matched by the anxiety of the sport's second- and third-tier teams, whose ability to prove their worthiness can be enhanced or devastated depending on where they're placed.
The key to every World Cup draw is the seedings, the four bowls or "pots" FIFA divides the teams into, ostensibly seeking - in the name of fairness and balance - to avoid having one or two groups with several title contenders and others with none.
FIFA contends the seedings are based on past performance, but because the World Cup Organizing Committee determines the seedings, more than an eyebrow is raised when the final list is announced.
This year could provide even more fodder for conspiracy theorists. FIFA president Sepp Blatter has suggested the much-maligned FIFA rankings and qualifying performances may be used to help determine seedings.
Taking the last three World Cups and weighing the results so that 2002 is worth half, 1998 is worth a third and 1994 is worth a sixth, Brazil clearly sits atop the 32 teams. It won the 1994 and 2002 titles, and is the indisputable leader of the No. 1 seeds.
The other seven seeds, in order, are Germany, Spain, Italy, France, Croatia, South Korea and Argentina.
Mexico and the Netherlands are tied atop the second eight, followed by England, Sweden, the United States, Paraguay, Japan and Serbia-Montenegro (formerly Yugoslavia). Costa Rica leads the next eight, followed by Ecuador, Poland, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Tunisia and Switzerland.
The remaining teams are gathered in a final seeding, six because they've never played in a World Cup (Angola, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Togo, Trinidad and Tobago, and Ukraine) and two because they've haven't earned their invite to the tournament in quite a while (Australia, 1974, and the Czech Republic, 1990).
But this is where FIFA is likely to wield its influence and "tweak" the seedings.
Germany is the third-lowest ranked team among the top seeds (16th), but as host already is guaranteed the top spot in Group A.
South Korea may have reached the semifinals at home in 2002, but it didn't win a game in the previous two World Cups and is ranked 29th, the worst of any team in the top group. It also had the lowest point total among Asia's four automatic qualifiers.
Conversely, the Netherlands finished fourth in 1998 and is ranked third by FIFA. The Dutch also finished with the most qualifying points of any team in Europe (32) and are one of only five teams on the continent to go through qualifying undefeated (10-0-2).
Swapping South Korea and the Dutch would conform to FIFA's world view. The only possible hitch: FIFA vice president Chung Mong Joon is on both the World Cup and FIFA executive committees, and he's South Korean.
Croatia is ranked 20th and, other than South Korea, is the second-lowest ranked team in the top group. But the next three candidates for promotion are Mexico, England and Sweden.
Europeans on the World Cup committee - there are 13 among the 31 members, including the chairman - are unlikely to approve moving up the Mexicans. And replacing one European team with another by passing two CONCACAF teams with higher rankings (Mexico at No. 7 and the United States at No.
may not be worth the fight.
More likely is elevating the second-ranked Czechs out of the last pot and the 10th-ranked Portuguese out of the third pot into the second seeds. Even though the Czechs had to beat Norway in a playoff to get to the World Cup, leaving them in the last group would be unfair to them and the rest of the field.
Similarly, Portugal finished second to the Greeks at last year's European Championship and had the second-highest points total among European qualifiers with a 9-0-3 record.
If the Czechs and Portuguese are moved up, that would displace two teams from the second pot. The three most likely candidates are Paraguay, Japan and Serbia.
Serbia has the worst record of anybody among the second seeds and is ranked 47th. Paraguay is ranked 30th, 15 places below Japan. Both easily could be dropped into the third tier, which would leave one team too many in the third seeds.
The bottom three there are Iran, Tunisia and Switzerland.
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Iran is ranked 19th and qualified easily back in June. Tunisia is the only African team not among the last group of seeds, and trying to drop it likely would resurrect accusations of racism last loudly heard after Germany won the vote over South Africa to host World Cup 2006.
That leaves Switzerland, which hasn't played in a World Cup since 1994, and is the lowest-ranked side not in the last group already. Down it goes.
The only other potential land mine among the lowest group is Ukraine. It may have been the first team from Europe to qualify, but it has never played in a World Cup and is ranked 40th. The Ivory Coast is right behind it at No. 41.
But if those hurdles are cleared, the seedings are reset as follows:
- Brazil, Germany, Spain, Italy, France, Croatia, Argentina and the Netherlands in Pot 1.
- South Korea, Mexico, England, Sweden, the United States, Japan, Czech Republic and Portugal in Pot 2.
- Paraguay, Serbia-Montenegro, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Tunisia in Pot 3.
- Switzerland, Angola, Ivory Coast, Togo, Ghana, Ukraine, Trinidad and Australia in Pot 4.
After that, it's a matter of separating Germany into Group A, then picking blindly until the groups are filled. FIFA's current rules would prohibit one team from facing off against another from its region, except Europe.
So the mock draw looks like this:
Group A: Germany, South Korea, Poland, Ivory Coast.
Group B: Italy, England, Saudi Arabia, Australia.
Group C: Argentina, Portugal, Serbia-Montenegro, Togo.
Group D: Spain, Czech Republic, Ecuador, Trinidad.
Group E: Brazil, Japan, Costa Rica, Switzerland.
Group F: France, United States, Iran, Angola.
Group G: Netherlands, Sweden, Paraguay, Ghana.
Group H: Croatia, Mexico, Tunisia, Ukraine.
At first glance, there doesn't appear to be any overbalanced group, although Brazil seems to have received a relatively easy first round compared to Argentina. Group H could be troublesome for either European side or Mexico, and Germany doesn't have any walkover, either.
Regardless, the real draw likely will provide surprises - and theories of how it was rigged.
